The New England Patriots finished the regular season with a 14-3 record (8-0 on the road) and won their AFC East division for the first time in five years. As a result, the Patriots will host a playoff game for the first time in six years, in the Wild Card round, against the Los Angeles Chargers.
The Patriots landed the No. 2 seed in the AFC, led by their second-year quarterback Drake Maye, who finished with 4,394 passing yards, threw 31 touchdowns, and also led the NFL in completion percentage (72.0%). He’s showcased himself as an MVP-caliber quarterback who many consider a top candidate to win the award.
Looking at the season as a whole for both teams, this is a fairly even matchup in terms of team statistics on both sides of the ball. The Patriots' defense allowed opposing offenses to collect 295.2 yards per game, ranking eighth-best in the NFL this season, while the Chargers only allowed 285.2 yards per game, which was the fifth-best.
Although Los Angeles finished with fewer total yards per game on defense, New England’s defense proved to be stronger and more stout, as opposing teams averaged only 18.8 points per game, which is the fourth-best this season. The Chargers gave up 20.0 points per game, ranking ninth.
The turnover differential in the regular season was something that stood out to me. Although Los Angeles’ defense finished with more turnovers than New England’s, they also turned the ball over quite a bit themselves, which in turn gives the Patriots a better differential overall than the Chargers. It’s also worth keeping in mind that the Chargers have three defensive backs ranked at the top of the league for interceptions this season (Tony Jefferson, Derwin James, Donte Jackson).
- New England: 19 turnovers, 16 giveaways, +3
- Los Angeles: 23 turnovers, 21 giveaways, +2
New England’s defense is getting back to form with the return of star defensive tackle Milton Williams for the playoffs. Williams is the best defensive lineman on the team at attacking the quarterback and wreaking havoc in the offensive backfield.
That said, the Chargers’ offensive line has been hit with injuries since Day 1 of the season, and it’s led to 29 different starting offensive line combinations. QB Justin Herbert was sacked the second-most (54) this season, and L.A.’s offense ranked at the very bottom of the league in pass block win rate (54.4%, 32nd) and run block win rate (69%, 31st).
Even with all of the injuries and dysfunction on the offensive line, the Chargers still finished the regular season with the second-highest time of possession this season.
Patriots Key To Success Is Attacking Chargers Weak Offensive Line
The Patriots can gain an advantage with their strong defensive front, attacking the Chargers' weak and pieced-together offensive line. New England’s aggressive style should open up some opportunities for them to get their offense back on the field.
Another important factor where the Patriots have the upper hand is their overall health. New England has players returning from injured reserve, while Los Angeles is managing a few injuries, including one to their starting cornerback Jackson, who exited last week’s game with an ankle injury. He was the only starter to play in the season finale and ended up in the medical tent.
The Patriots had their fair share of injuries during the season, but they’re getting back on the field at the right time for when it matters most in the playoffs.
Kickoff from Foxborough is scheduled for Sunday at 8:00 PM.
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