The New England Patriots enjoyed a week of rest during a chaotic Week 14 slate and still managed to come out as winners.
One of the biggest reasons for skepticism surrounding the Patriots’ legitimacy as Super Bowl contenders is their inexperience—especially at quarterback. Drake Maye is playing at a superstar level this season, but there’s still an unknown factor when projecting how he’ll perform in his first NFL postseason.
However, with how Week 14 unfolded, it may be harder for critics to point to Maye’s lack of playoff experience as a fatal flaw. Several of the AFC’s top quarterbacks and the teams that have recently defined the conference’s playoff hierarchy suffered major setbacks. Losses by the Chiefs, Ravens, and Bengals reshaped the postseason picture in New England’s favor.
Top QBs Facing Elimination
Mahomes and the Chiefs’ Spiral
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have owned the AFC since the end of the Tom Brady era. Seven straight AFC Championship appearances and five Super Bowl trips in the last six years speak for themselves.
But this year, the Chiefs are on the outside looking in with one month remaining.
Kansas City’s loss to the Houston Texans dropped them to 6–7 on the year and to the No. 10 seed in the conference. Making matters worse, they’ve lost head-to-head matchups against several wild card contenders—including Houston, Buffalo, and Jacksonville—leaving them without crucial tiebreakers.
Additionally, the Los Angeles Chargers widened their gap over the Chiefs with a win over the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football.
CBS Sports’ playoff predictor gives the Chiefs just a 9.1% chance to make the playoffs. Regarding postseason experience, Mahomes and the Chiefs have as much as anybody in this era of football. Without them, there are minimal opponents with backgrounds much greater than New England’s.
Ravens Come Up Short, AFC North Shifts
The Baltimore Ravens haven’t resembled an imposing juggernaut this season, but the dual rushing threat of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry still creates a uniquely challenging matchup for any defense.
Their Week 14 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, however, knocked them off the AFC North lead. And while the Patriots lost to Pittsburgh back in Week 3, it’s a game that head coach Mike Vrabel would have to feel excited to avenge. New England significantly outgained the Steelers, but cost themselves with five turnovers, two of which came on the goal line. With Aaron Rodgers playing through a wrist fracture, Pittsburgh looks far less imposing in a potential rematch.
Bengals Collapse In Do-Or-Die Game
Despite playing without Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, or Trey Hendrickson, the Bengals nearly upset the Patriots in Week 12. When healthy, they remain as dangerous as any team in the AFC; they are the only non-Mahomes team to represent the AFC in a Super Bowl during Kansas City’s run.
But their fourth-quarter meltdown against Buffalo dropped them to 4–9. A winning record is now impossible, and while the AFC North is weak enough to keep their season technically alive, they would require multiple results to break their way, even if they win out.
Defense Wins Championships?
With several elite quarterbacks fading from contention, the Patriots’ playoff path may hinge less on outgunning superstar passers and more on navigating the AFC’s two premier defenses: the Denver Broncos and Houston Texans.
Denver’s Dominant Defense
Denver is tied with New England for the longest active win streak in the league at 10 games. Whereas the Patriots’ success is driven largely by Maye, the Broncos are anchored by an overwhelming defense.
They rank fourth in scoring defense (18.1 points per game) and third in total defense (282 yards allowed). The reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Pat Surtain, remains an elite boundary corner—but the pass rush has been the defining force. With 55 sacks, Denver leads the league by 11. Maye is among the most-sacked quarterbacks in the NFL this season, 40 times, making Denver’s lightning-fast rush a major threat.
The Broncos are the rare defense where a player as elite as Surtain doesn’t even headline the unit. That’s how deep and disruptive they are.
Houston’s NFL-Best Unit
Somehow, the Texans are even better on that side of the ball.
Houston owns the league’s No. 1 scoring defense (16 points per game) and No. 1 total defense (266.3 yards per game). Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter have both recorded double-digit sacks in 13 games, while Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter have a case as the best cornerback duo in football.
Their ability to generate turnovers (fourth in the league) makes them particularly dangerous for any young quarterback—Maye included—while also easing the load on an offense with its share of struggles.
A Potential Patriots vs. Bills Matchup for the Ages
If the playoff picture holds, one thing becomes clear: the best quarterback remaining in the AFC will be Josh Allen. Maye may challenge that when the time comes, but Allen’s résumé and high-end play make Buffalo far and away the biggest offensive threat to New England’s Super Bowl aspirations.
Despite being long-time division rivals, the Patriots and Bills rarely meet with high postseason stakes. In the entire Super Bowl era, they’ve overlapped playoff berths just five times, and they’ve only played twice in the postseason—most recently the 2021 Wild Card blowout.
For the first time in a generation, both franchises have real Super Bowl hopes at the exact same time. And with New England and Buffalo set to face off in Week 15—with the Patriots able to clinch the AFC East—it might be a preview of a historic matchup.