The Buffalo Bills are one of two remaining unbeatens in the NFL this season, and the New England Patriots look to knock them off that perch in the franchise's first Sunday Night Football matchup since 2023. While the quarterback matchup between reigning MVP Josh Allen and sophomore Drake Maye will take center stage, it is the Patriots' running backs who could provide the edge to New England this Sunday.
With Sean McDermott at the helm, it is no surprise that the Bills have excelled at defending the pass, as this has consistently been a strength for Buffalo during his tenure. However, one area where the Bills have been severely lacking this season is their rush defense.
Buffalo's Biggest Defensive Weakness Should be Exploited
Coming into Week 5, the Bills are giving up 164.3 rushing yards per game, according to Pro-Football-Reference. The only team giving up more yards per game through four weeks would be the Chicago Bears at 164.5 yards per game. The difference between the two is about as slim as you can find, amplifying the issues Buffalo has had stopping the run this season.
One doesn't have to look too far back to see how this unit has struggled as Baltimore's Derrick Henry ran all over the Bills in the opening week of the season. Still, that was the first week of the season, and the fortune of a team as highly thought of as the Bills should have changed by now.
For one reason or another, that hasn't happened yet, and it could be a great boost for New England. Despite boasting a strong front seven, including two of the better linebackers in the AFC East (Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano), Buffalo has still given up at least 100 yards on the ground in their last three games.
To make matters worse for the Bills, those issues stopping the run were against the New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, and New Orleans Saints. All three of those teams rank in the bottom half of the league in rushing yards per game, according to Pro-Football-Reference. Injuries did play a role in those struggles for Buffalo, but injuries are part of the game. This negative trend for the Bills is certainly something worth monitoring heading into Week 5, as, in theory, New England will have opportunities to expose this facet of Buffalo's defense.
A Strong Offense Could Be New England's Best Defense Against Allen
While the Patriots have yet to have a 100-yard rusher this season, they have still proven capable of earning yards on the ground in several ways by incorporating a multitude of players. By moving the ball successfully on the ground and churning up time on the clock, as Maye guides the offense down the field, New England will prevent Josh Allen from making the type of plays that have made him a perennial MVP candidate.
Despite the frustrating 21-14 loss in Week 3 to the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Patriots proved that they could be methodical and march their way down the field with short, but effective plays. There was no better indication of that than when New England utilized a 17-play, 92-yard drive before the half that took over 7 minutes off the clock to put themselves in a position to tie the game up. While the drive ultimately ended in an interception, it still proved that this unit can keep opposing offenses off the field for an extended period.
Allen continues to play at a high level, but what makes Buffalo that much better this season has been its own ability to lean into the ground game. James Cook has been excellent to begin this year, and it is part of why the Bills have been so effective offensively. The stockpile of weapons Allen has at his disposal has made Buffalo's offense unpredictable, as they can hurt you in the air with Allen's elite arm strength or maul teams with a potent rushing attack.
The longer Buffalo's offense stays on the field, the more likely they are to force the Patriots' defense into a mistake, which could be crushing to the team's hopes for an upset. New England has plenty of options at running back, and each has shown a different strength this season. It will be of the utmost importance for the Patriots to utilize these strengths to keep them out of a shootout against a team that has proven it can consistently win those types of matchups.