3 X-Factors Who'll Help Determine the Red Sox's 2024 Season
Is it really April already?
It feels like yesterday that we were watching the Red Sox wading through the throes of a fruitless 2023 season, but here we are. With an Opening Day win in Seattle, the 2024 season is officially underway.
This iteration of the Sox is rife with uncertainty. With a young, talented, and (relatively) unproven roster, potential outcomes range far and wide. Boston had a team-record seven Opening Day starters under the age of 27, and a farm system teeming with highly-touted prospects should only add to that figure as the season moves along.
How the season ends up going will come down to more than just a few players, and it'd be foolish to pretend otherwise. However, there are a couple guys whose performances could alter the outcome of the Red Sox' season more than others.
X-Factor: OF Tyler O'Neill
Even before his fifth consecutive Opening Day home run, it was readily apparent how important Tyler O'Neill is to this team. New GM Craig Breslow went out of his way to acquire the seventh-year outfielder from St. Louis this offseason, banking on the return of his power and Gold Glove caliber defense after two tough, injury-plagued years with the Cardinals.
There are three things making O'Neill an X-factor: right-handed hitting, defense, and health.
Alone, his status as a right-handed hitter in a lineup full of lefties makes him valuable. He'll be relied upon to play every day, balancing out lefty-heavy lineups with his powerful right-handed presence. It's not like the Red Sox have many options if he struggles, either; Rob Refsnyder is the only other right-handed outfielder on the roster, and he's dealing with a broken toe.
Secondly, his defense helps shore up one of the worst units in baseball from a season ago. The 28-year old possesses two Gold Glove awards, and is generally regarded as one of the best defensive corner outfielders in the game.
He's also athletic enough (90th percentile sprint speed and defensive range, per Statcast) to log innings in center field, making him one of the most versatile players on the roster and an invaluable defensive shape-shifter. If he can turn in an elite season with the glove, the Sox' woeful defense should take a significant step forward.
The biggest concern with O'Neill is health. The outfielder has never played more than 138 games in a season, and has failed to break the 100-game plateau in four of the five full seasons he's participated in. When he stays on the field, the production is there; when he struggles through injuries or misses time, it is not.
O'Neill brings a whole lot to the Red Sox, from positionally-transcendent defense to right-handed home run pop. However, the uncertainty about his consistency and health make him our first X-factor.