3 X-Factors Who'll Help Determine the Red Sox's 2024 Season

X-Factor: SS Trevor Story

Forgive me if you were expecting a surprise here.

It hasn't been the easiest start to life for Trevor Story in red and white; over his first two seasons at Fenway, the 31-year old's missed more games than he's appeared in, and his play has been middling at best even when healthy.

Now, the two-time All-Star enters his first full season as Boston's unquestioned everyday shortstop. Much of the Red Sox' fortunes ride on whether or not Story can regain his form of the past and be the two-way star he's shown he can be

Since Xander Bogaerts departed after the 2022 season, the shortstop position has been something of a revolving door. The likes of Story, Kiké Hernandez, Pablo Reyes, David Hamilton, and others have all spent time at the position, to ranging degrees of success, but Story is the only real candidate to captain the infield long-term.

Improving at shortstop is necessary if the 2024 Sox are to be any good; the 2023 team accumulated a whopping -1.0 fWAR from the position en route to a last-place AL East finish. A majority of that came from the now-departed Hernandez, but that doesn't make the position any less important for 2024. It's just not possible for a baseball team to succeed with one of its premier positions providing such little value.

There's reason to believe Story's play can be a catalyst for the 2024 team. His defense alone gives him a high floor; despite playing in just 43 games, he placed fourth in the AL in Defensive Runs Saved in 2023.

Story pairs exceptional range at shortstop with elite instincts and a solid arm, making him one of the more well-rounded defenders in the game at shortstop. Even if he ultimately takes a step back defensively in 2024 (early returns suggest he won't), he'll still represent a massive improvement from the year before.

The volatility lies with Story's bat. He was okay in 2022, posting a .737 OPS, but struggled for long chunks of time and never seemed to fully find his groove before a season-ending injury. Things got worse in 2023, as the right-hander hit just three home runs over 43 games and was only able to scratch out a .566 OPS.

Yes, he missed a lot of time, but he spent all of 2023 looking out of sync or even flat-out helpless at the plate. For a guy less than halfway through a six-year, $140 million deal, those numbers won't play - no matter how prolific he might be defensively.

It's not like he's talentless offensively. Story's cracked 24 homers in five different seasons, and he's finished in the top-12 of MVP voting on three different occasions. Any successful 2024 Red Sox season will almost certainly have to include a bounce-back campaign at the plate from Trevor Story.