3 X-Factors Who'll Help Determine the Red Sox's 2024 Season

X-Factor: SP Garrett Whitlock, SP Tanner Houck

Why not separate the two? Why mush both these guys into one X-factor?

The reasoning is simple: they're both being asked to play the same role this year, and one is not more important than the other. Both guys are converted relievers with varying success as starters; both guys are young right-handers entrusted to carry the back half of the rotation in 2024. Yes, they have their individualities, and yes, one could succeed while the other fails, but their range of outcomes and potential impact is very similar.

Like shortstop, starting pitching was a weakness for last season's club. 17 different players started a game in 2023, and the staff pitched to a measly 4.52 ERA. Starters averaged just 4.8 innings per start, taxing a bullpen that wasn't talented or deep enough to bear that burden.

Boston replaced former pitching coach Dave Bush with Andrew Bailey before the 2024 season, a clear message that 2023's performance can't be replicated. The result so far has been good; through the first five games, the pitching staff walked just one hitter while the starters compiled an ERA under 1.50. Whitlock and Houck were major parts of that, combining for 11 innings and 18 strikeouts.

Both Houck and Whitlock are unproven. They're both very talented, but neither one has pitched all that well as a starter. There's few other options this year, though. It seems to be those two or bust; it's not like Boston has a plethora of starting depth if one of them falters, with Richard Fitts and Cooper Criswell as the only minor-leaguers who project as MLB-ready starters. Josh Winckowski could make a spot start or two, but his track record as a starter is poor.

It's far from a given, but if both pitchers can even maintain sub-4.25 ERAs while giving the Red Sox consistent innings, this rotation has a chance to be very good. They've each proven themselves as relievers, but their viability as starters is up in the air. It's fair to say that a large part of the season hinges on whether or not Whitlock and Houck can harness their capabilities into consistent starts. If they don't? The pitching staff is thin enough that it isn't difficult to see it collapsing.

In other Red Sox news: