Everything You Need to Know About Patriots vs. Bengals Week 1
By Ryan Bunton
The Jerod Mayo era finally kicks off in Cincinnati on Sunday, as the Patriots face off against the Bengals in a Week 1 showdown. After 24 seasons under Bill Belichick, New England will play their first game in nearly a quarter-century with a different head coach at the helm.
After a 4-13 season in which the Patriots recorded their worst record since 1992, New England will be looking to take some positive steps in a rebuilding season. Expectations for the Patriots are quite tempered in 2024, and the years of "AFC Championship Game or Bust" are in the rearview mirror. Things could very much get worse before they get better in Foxborough.
On the other sideline, the Bengals will be looking to get back on track following a disappointing 2023 campaign. After back-to-back AFC Championship Game appearances (including a trip to Super Bowl LVI in 2021), Cincinnati missed out on the postseason with a 9-8 season. The Bengals were forced to play their final seven games without superstar QB Joe Burrow, which undoubtedly played a role in their absence from the playoffs.
Although both of these teams finished bottom of their division in 2023, they are trending in two very different directions. The Bengals are looking to make a deep playoff run, while the Patriots will be in the mix for a lottery pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
New head coach, new quarterback, new faces, and new coordinators. What will game one of the rebranded New England Patriots bring? Here's everything you need to know about the Patriots' first contest in 2024:
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The Nuts and Bolts: Start Time, How to Watch, Etc.
- Home: Cincinnati Bengals
- Road: New England Patriots
- Venue: Paycor Stadium — Cincinnati, Ohio
- Date: Sept. 8, 2024
- Time: 1:00 PM Eastern (noon Central, 10 a.m. Pacific)
- TV Coverage: CBS
- Radio: 98.5 FM The Sports Hub
Patriots vs. Bengals Prediction
Don't be surprised if this game starts out as a slugfest. Joe Burrow has struggled in September in his career, as it is the only month in which he has a losing record. Burrow is 6-7-1 in September, while he is 23-17 in all other months. His 89.5 September passer rating is also his lowest on the calendar. Historically, Burrow and the Bengals have struggled out of the gate.
There are also plenty of reasons to expect rust in this game on both sides. Burrow hasn't played in a regular season game since Nov. 16 of last season, when he suffered a season-ending wrist injury. Meanwhile, Jacoby Brissett only threw 23 passes last season and hasn't started a regular season game since Nov. 27, 2022. Both signal callers could take several series to settle in.
After a phenomenal (albeit abbreviated) rookie season, the showdown between Patriots corner Christian Gonzalez and star Bengals receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins should be a fun matchup to watch. Chase is embroiled in a contract standoff with Cincinnati and has not been practicing, but Zac Taylor expressed confidence that he could fully participate on Sunday.
All eyes will be on New England's offensive line on Sunday as the unit struggled immensely throughout training camp and preseason games. It could be open season for three-time Pro Bowler Trey Hendrickson.
In Alex Van Pelt's first game as the Patriots offensive coordinator, it will likely be a run-first game plan with a dink-and-dunk passing game. Van Pelt labeled New England as a "running team" this offseason, and with Jacoby Brissett under center, it would be surprising if New England chooses to push the ball downfield. Look for the Patriots' offense to utilize the screen game and also lean on Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson as receiving options out of the backfield.
New England's preference to keep the ball on the ground should result in a lower-scoring affair, while their defense should somewhat limit Cincinnati's offense from putting up huge numbers. On the other side of the ball, it feels far-fetched to suggest the Pats punching the ball into the endzone multiple times. A 24-13 Bengals win is reasonable.
Patriots vs. Bengals Injury Report: Patriots Missing Key Contributors
The Patriots will be without three key contributors from their 2023 squad: wide receiver Kendrick Bourne, guard Cole Strange, and defensive tackle Christian Barmore. Bourne and Strange will both miss the first four games after being placed on the PUP list, while there is no timetable for Barmore's return after he was diagnosed with blood clots in July.
Bourne is working his way back from a Torn ACL in Week 8 last season, while Strange is battling a torn patellar tendon in his left knee that forced him to miss New England's final three games in 2023. As New England struggles heavily on the offensive line, they will be without Strange, a former first-rounder who has started 27 games for the Patriots over his two NFL seasons. New England could also be without guard Sidy Sow, who appeared in 15 games last season.
Chad Graff of The Athletic reported last Tuesday that tight end Hunter Henry, who led the team in touchdown receptions last season, will likely miss Week 1. Henry returned to practice on Wednesday after missing the last several weeks with an undisclosed injury. Perhaps his return to the practice field extends a lifeline to his availability against the Bengals, but Henry didn't feature in any of the Patriots preseason games and even if he is active, he likely won't be 100% and not yet up to regular season speed.
Bengals 2023 first-rounder defensive end Myles Murphy has been placed on injured reserve with a knee injury. 2024 first-round tackle Amarius Mims is currently questionable with a pectoral injury, but he returned to practice on Monday in a promising sign for Cincinnati fans.
It's not an injury, but star Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase is still not practicing as he angles for a contract extension. Cincinnati head coach Zac Taylor described the situation as day-to-day and "did not want to speculate on how much Chase could play Sunday given the lack of practice reps". It would be a pretty shocking turn of events if the former Offensive Rookie of the Year is not on the field on Sunday, but it is definitely a development to keep an eye on.
Each team is required to send out an injury report on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday prior to a Sunday game. By 4 p.m. Eastern on Friday, the game-status report (when players are designated as questionable, doubtful, or out) must be submitted, so the upcoming days will yield more in-depth information.
Weather Report: Beautiful Day for Football
If weather reports hold, Sunday in Cincinnati should be a beautiful day for football. Reports indicate sunny and 73 degrees in The Queen City.
Chances of rain are miniscule at 6% with wind blowing to the northwest at 8 mph. As the week progresses, we should see an increased accuracy of weather predictions. If current projections hold, the weather should not be a significant factor. For Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense, they shouldn't have any weather-related issues with taking to the air in their passing attack.
Patriots vs. Bengals Betting Odds
Spread: CIN -9.5 (-105) | NE +9.5 (-114)
Moneyline: CIN (-450) | NE (+350)
Total: 40.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
New England will head into Cincinnati as heavy underdogs. The 9.5-point spread in the Pats-Bengals matchup is the largest in the entire league in Week 1 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook) and New England has the longest moneyline odds at +350. With oddsmakers heavily favoring Cincinnati, you would have to wager $45 to win $10 at FanDuel if the Bengals win.
The Patriots were 5-11-1 against the spread last season, while the Bengals were 7-8-2. The over was 7-10 in New England's games in 2023 and 10-7 in Cincinnati's contests.
New England's underdog status in Week 1 is hardly a surprise, as the Pats are not currently favored in a single game in 2024 and have the longest odds (+2600) to win their division than any other team.
Patriots vs. Bengals Matchup History
The Patriots hold the edge over the Bengals in the all-time series with a 17-10 record, including wins in 10 of the last 13 matchups between the two.
The teams last faced off in Foxborough on Christmas Eve in 2022, as the Bengals squeaked out a 22-18 win in a game that was truly a tale of two halves. Cincinnati jumped out to a 22-0 lead at the half before New England mounted a comeback in the second half. Trailing by four and on the doorstep of a monumental comeback, Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled on first-and-goal from the 5-yard line with 55 seconds left. Cincinnati would recover the fumble and win the game to improve to 11-4, while New England fell to 7-8 on their way to narrowly missing the playoffs.
The Patriots last made the trip to Cincinnati for a Week 15 matchup in 2019, a comfortable 34-13 New England win in Tom Brady's final season with the Pats.
Despite New England's historical head-to-head dominance, the tide is clearly turning with both Tom Brady and Bill Belichick gone from Foxborough. The Patriots' days of bullying AFC competition feel far gone, and past records are seemingly a moot point as the pieces of the New England dynasty run have gone their separate ways. Jerod Mayo's first game will help set the tone for the revamped Patriots.
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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.