If NBA Finals Becomes a Three-Point Contest Between Dukies, Celtics Will Lose

Jayson Tatum has done a lot of things well in this postseason, but one thing he has not excelled at is shooting the three.

Fellow Duke Blue Devils alum and upcoming NBA Finals opponent Kyrie Irving, has done it better than almost anyone.

So while the Boston Celtics are the odds-on favorites to win the title over the Dallas Mavericks, if it becomes all about which superstar shoots better from downtown, expect this to be a difficult test for Boston.

The Stats Don’t Lie

Irving and Tatum are both among the eight players who have taken 100 or more three-pointers in this year’s playoffs. Irving has made 45 of his 107 attempts, a .421 shooting percentage that ranks 18th among all qualified players.

Of the 21 players who have taken more than 70 three-point attempts in this year’s playoffs, only Donte DiVincenzo (45-106, .425) and Myles Turner (39-86, .453) have shot at a better clip. 

To put it more clearly - Irving is one of the highest-volume three-point shooters and has shot them better than nearly every other high-volume shooter in this postseason.

Tatum has made just 29 of his 100 attempts, and his .290 clip puts him 90th out of 101 qualifiers. Of the players below him, only Aaron Nesmith (79) has attempted more than 53 three-pointers. 

To sum up, Tatum takes as many threes as anyone else in the league and has shot them at a percentage reserved for the players who don’t really take a lot of threes.

Now, Tatum is a better three-point shooter than he has shown in these playoffs. He shot .376 in the regular season, up 8.6% from his current percentage. Irving is actually shooting better from distance in the postseason than his also stellar .411 during the 2023-24 campaign.

Luka’s Pretty Good Too

When it comes to volume shooting, nobody has taken more three pointers this postseason than Luka Doncic, who has fired 166 attempts from downtown and made them at a .343 clip, leading the playoffs with 57 made triples.

As a tandem, Doncic and Irving have made 102 three-pointers, the most of any tandem in the playoffs. Boston's top three-point field goal leader isn't Tatum, but rather Derrick White.

White has made 48 three-pointers, good for third in the NBA postseason, and has shot them at .407, more than 10 percentage points higher than Tatum, who he has taken 18 more triples than.

Payton Pritchard has actually led the Celtics in 3fg% (.455), but has attempted just 44 three-pointers.

As table above shows, among the top two players in three-pointers made for the final eight teams of the postseason, Tatum has the worst percentage, and is the reason why Boston's duo is second to last.

White helped cover up for Tatum’s lack of efficiency, and the Celtics obviously haven’t been made to pay for Tatum’s unsuccessful volume shooting, but none of their opponents have had the tandem of Luka and Kyrie shooting from long-range that Dallas has. (Remember, Tyrese Haliburton, who was second behind Doncic in three-point attempts this postseason, missed the last two games of the Eastern Conference Finals after making six three-pointers in Game 1 and going 8-20 (40%) from deep over the first two contests.)

Tatum is the worst three-point shooter on the Celtics this postseason. His .290 trails not only White and Pritchard but also Jrue Holiday (.397), Jaylen Brown (.368), Sam Hauser (.333), and even Al Horford (.346), who has had some noticeable struggles from downtown. But even steady Al has managed to hit 27 three-pointers, just two less than Tatum.

The truth is that the Celtics are going to be a three-heavy team. That's how they want to play. And Dallas, who has taken more threes than anyone this postseason, is happy to oblige and turn the NBA Finals into a distance shooting contest.

The Celtics can win that way. They can match the shooting prowess of Irving and Doncic. Just as long as it's not Tatum taking the threes.

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