Major NFL Draft Shakeup Sets the Table for Patriots Trade Down

The Minnesota Vikings just made a move that sets up an obvious attempt to trade for the Patriots' No. 3 overall pick.
Jan 17, 2024; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo (left) and owner
Jan 17, 2024; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo (left) and owner / Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

The obvious story of the 2024 NFL Draft is the absolutely loaded quarterback class, and the number of teams that are looking for a starter. The teams picking top-three face an especially interesting decision.

All three could be targeting quarterbacks, but they'll also have no shortage of opportunities to trade down if they feel comfortable selecting one of the "lesser" first-round prospects.

The Minnesota Vikings just made a big trade to add an additional first-round pick, and you have to imagine the intention was to get more ammunition to trade up.

It's not like the Patriots didn't already need to be weighing the benefits of trading up versus staying put to select either Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye, but now it's a lot more of a concrete reality.

According to the old Jimmie Johnson draft pick trade value chart, the No. 3 pick is worth a bit more (2,200) as the No. 11 (1,250) and No. 23 (760) combined. For context, the pick that would fill that 190-point gap in the trade would be the No. 80 overall pick in Round 3 (190 points).

But when a team is desperate to land a top quarterback prospect, the Jimmie Johnson values sometimes under-value the higher draft pick. So the Patriots could well be looking at an offer like No. 11, No. 23 and No. 42 for No. 3 and maybe another mid-round pick.

In the Belichick era we could be almost certain that this trade down would happen. Picking up value like that would be too much for Bill to pass up. But now with Eliot Wolf and Jerod Mayo giving this franchise a new identity, Bob Kraft and company could very well decide that a franchise QB is simply too much of a priority to pass up.

The betting odds suggest that the No. 3 pick is overwhelmingly likely to be either Maye or Daniels.

The Vikings' presumed offer should be just one of many the Patriots get for that pick, and teams who greatly prefer one of Maye or Daniels could wait until the very last minute to put in some offers once the Patriots are finally on the clock, so expect this to be a long process of speculation on a potential move.

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