Patriots' Projected Win Total Still Hopelessly Optimistic

Coming off an 8-9 season in 2022, there was hope that the New England Patriots would improve in 2023. With a new offensive coordinator in Bill O'Brien and exciting new weapons like JuJu Smith-Schuster and Ezekiel Elliott, the Patriots appeared poised for a rebound after a disappointing campaign.

Oddsmakers weren't so sure, however, and set New England's projected win total around 6.5 or 7.5 wins. Even those predictions now appear wildly unrealistic, however, as the Patriots' season has gone off the rails.

Patriots Win Total Bet

With New England getting off to a 2-8 start, the Over/Under for its win total has fallen to 4.5 wins at WynnBET. Even that reduced number still feels too generous, though, given how poorly the Patriots have played this year.

They enter their bye week coming off three straight losses and currently own the worst record in the AFC. New England was unable to beat a tanking Washington Commanders team at home in Week 9 and managed just 6 points against the Indianapolis Colts in Germany last week, so the team is clearly heading in the wrong direction.

The offense has somehow regressed from last year, ranking 31st in scoring and 26th in yardage. The offensive line is a mess, the running game is non-existent and Mac Jones looks broken beyond repair. The defense has struggled as well after getting decimated by injuries in the secondary, ranking 23rd in points allowed per game.

The Patriots also appear to be in complete disarray. Bill Belichick appears all but certain to lose his job this offseason and did nothing to improve his team at the trade deadline. New England is also dealing with a quarterback controversy and has had to discipline several players who appear to be checking out.

In order for the Patriots to hit the Over on 4.5 wins, they'd have to go 3-4 after their bye to finish at 5-12. Given their upcoming schedule, however, that appears very unlikely.

They should beat the New York Giants at home in Week 12, but after that there's a good chance they lose the rest of their games. It's hard to see them beating the Los Angeles Chargers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos or Buffalo Bills, all of whom have at least twice as many wins as New England.

The Patriots end their season with a winnable game against the New York Jets, but even that is no guarantee. Aaron Rodgers could be back for the Jets by then and New York might be fighting for a playoff spot, while the Patriots will have absolutely zero incentive to win that game.

New England should be tanking for a top draft pick, anyway. Barring a dramatic revival after their bye week, the Pats are far more likely to finish with 3 or 4 wins than 5+, making the Under a better play.

No matter where New England ends up, there's no better place to bet on your favorite team than at your hometown sportsbook, so sign up for WynnBET today!

More New England Patriots news and analysis: