Projecting the Red Sox' Opening Day Roster

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Aug 4, 2023; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox left fielder Jarren Duran (16) celebrates a home run / Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

Outfield (5): Jarren Duran, Masataka Yoshida, Ceddanne Rafaela, Tyler O'Neill, Wilyer Abreu

O'Neill and Yoshida are the only two non-negotiables here. The former belted 34 home runs in 2021, while the latter projects as an everyday player, whether at DH or in the outfield. Both players are veterans, and both will need to pull their weight if the Red Sox are to have a respectable season.

Jarren Duran has the next-strongest case, assuming he isn't traded. Duran struggled to start his career, but came to life in 2023, posting an .828 OPS over 102 games before a season-ending injury. Whether he can parlay that stretch into another good year is up in the air, but he certainly showed enough last year to warrant another opportunity to be an everyday player.

Ceddanne Rafaela making the roster is nowhere near certain. His 2023 major-league cameo wasn't necessarily inspiring; he made some nice defensive plays, but hit to a .666 OPS over 28 games. His swing-first tendencies go against modern baseball analytics, and he probably strikes out too much to be a leadoff hitter. But, he provides three things the Red Sox desperately need: youth, elite defense, and right-handed hitting. When you add in the fact that he's been hitting the cover off the ball in Spring Training and Alex Cora is openly discussing his roster chances, it feels likely that the 23-year old will get a real shot in the bigs to open the season. This spot could go to Rob Refsnyder, and it very well may, but my guess would be Rafaela for now.

The last spot comes down to Abreu and Refsnyder - two bat-first outfielders, one left-handed and the other right-handed. I'll give the last spot to Abreu; the 24-year old lefty hit to an .862 OPS in 28 games last year and will give this team a necessary injection of youth and power. His defense is admittedly poor, but if the Sox are planning another rebuild year (they are) it presents the perfect opportunity for young, flawed players to develop. Snubbing him for Refsnyder seems unlikely.

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