The Boston Red Sox had an eventful offseason but have finally arrived on Opening Day. The Sox had plenty of action in the pitching department, adding Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler in high-profile moves. They also sorted out some drama in the infield with the addition of Alex Bregman.
Although injuries to Kutter Crawford, Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello have the Opening Day roster looking different than expected, the Red Sox are in a good position as they open the year with a four-game series against the Texas Rangers.
So what could happen in the first series of the year? Let’s take a look.
Game 1: Garrett Crochet (BOS) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX)
The newly-acquired Red Sox ace will make his debut but Crochet doesn’t have a large sample size due to his time as a reliever with the Chicago White Sox. The left-hander is 0-1 with a 2.35 ERA in his career against the Rangers and had his two starts against Texas cut short as the White Sox tried to protect his trade value by limiting his innings last offseason.
The innings restriction didn’t stop Crochet from striking out seven batters in a July 23 start, however, and sets up nicely against Eovaldi. The former Sox pitcher has a 3-1 record but a 5.29 ERA in his career against Boston and allowed five earned runs in five innings during a start on Aug. 4, 2024.
Colton Wong has gone 3-for-7 with a pair of doubles against Eovaldi and Bregman owns a .953 OPS in 15 at-bats, giving the Red Sox the edge on Opening Day.
Prediction: Red Sox 5, Rangers 2
Game 2: Tanner Houck (BOS) vs. Jack Leiter (TEX)
Houck represented the Red Sox in last year’s All-Star game, going 9-10 with a 3.12 ERA. But he struggled against the Rangers, allowing eight earned runs in 11.2 innings. Adolis Garcia has been a thorn in the side of the 28-year-old going, 4-for-7 with a pair of home runs and Leody Tarveras has gone 2-for-3 with a home run and three walks in his career against Houck, giving the Rangers a lift at the plate.
Fortunately for Boston, the Rangers’ rotation is just as banged up as theirs is. Jon Gray broke his right wrist when he was hit by a line drive in a Spring Training game and Cody Bradford was shut down from throwing after soreness in his elbow. With Dane Dunning sent to the minor leagues, it gave Leiter a rotation spot which is great news for the Red Sox.
Leiter has never faced the Red Sox but was 0-3 with an 8.83 ERA in 35.2 innings last season. He also owns a 5.48 career ERA in the minors and posted a 9.8% walk rate during his brief stint in the minors. The 25-year-old posted a 3.48 ERA in 20.2 innings during Spring Training but his 10 walks indicate an offensive explosion for the Red Sox.
Prediction: Red Sox 7, Rangers 4
Game 3: Walker Buehler (BOS) vs. Tyler Mahle (TEX)
Another Red Sox acquisition will make his debut in Saturday’s game and he’ll do so against an unfamiliar opponent. Buehler has started three games against Texas, going 1-1 with a 2.40 ERA in 15 innings. But each start has been three years apart, creating a limited sample size. Joc Pederson has gone 3-for-10 with a homer against Buehler but he’s held Garcia to an 0-for-6 performance at the plate.
Regardless, the Sox may be able to capitalize on another questionable Texas starter. Mahle has been hampered by injuries in each of the past two seasons but struck out seven batters in 4.2 innings pitched in his lone start against Boston last year. Trevor Story is 2-for-15 with four strikeouts in his career against Mahle and it could be tough for both teams to score runs – especially if Texas goes to its bullpen to limit Mahle’s innings.
Prediction: Red Sox 3, Rangers 2
Game 4: Richard Fitts (BOS) vs. Jacob deGrom (TEX)
If this were a few years ago, going up against deGrom would be a tall task for a lineup. Unfortunately, he’s logged just 41 innings since signing a five-year, $185 million contract with the Rangers before the 2023 season. As a result, deGrom will be making his first start against the Red Sox since 2021. Rafael Devers has the most success against the former ace, going 3-for-8 with two doubles but it’s impossible to know how effective deGrom will be after throwing just six innings in Cactus League action.
deGrom’s opponent has just as many questions. Fitts has never faced the Rangers and won a roster spot after the injuries to Crawford and Bello. Part of the trade that sent Alex Verdugo to the New York Yankees, the Red Sox have successfully altered his mechanics and helped him post a 1.74 ERA in 20.2 innings last season.
Fitts’s modest success at Triple-A Worcester (9-5, 4.17 ERA) is a concern for regression. But if the Red Sox jump on deGrom, they could have a chance to pull off a sweep on opening weekend.
Prediction: Red Sox 4, Rangers 3