The Boston Red Sox pull off a stunner Saturday night after trading their former top prospect left-hander Connelly Early to the Washington Nationals for power-hitting third baseman Curtis Mead.
Early had a respectable short tenure with the Red Sox, striking out 122 batters with a 3.24 ERA in 111 innings pitched (21 starts). This season, he has a 3.44 ERA with 93 strikeouts in 91 2/3 innings. As for Mead, he was a former top prospect with the Tampa Bay Rays. He never lived up to his potential and was traded to the Chicago White Sox in 2025. He was traded in the previous offseason to the Nationals.
Connelly Early trade may have exposed Craig Brelsow's biggest flaw
To give credit where credit is due, Mead turned into a power-hitter with the Nats. He has a slash line of .250/.351/.505, has hit 17 home runs with 48 RBIs, all while posting an .856 OPS and a 136 OPS+. So far, it's been a career season, a revelation, really, and it seems like the Red Sox are willing to take a big gamble on him.
That "big gamble" is trading away one of their young, promising starters to get him. If it helps, Mead's swing works well at Fenway, where he had an estimated .308 batting average in the three-game series against the Red Sox.
But once again, this is definitely a "big gamble". No matter where you throw a dart on this trade, it's hard to get behind. It truly shows the weakness of the Red Sox's CBO, Craig Breslow, which is his ability to negotiate and gain leverage in trade talks.
This happened last year, when he failed to acquire Joe Ryan after proposing to trade Payton Tolle and Franklin Arias (which was the Twins' fault for not accepting), and he realized that time was winding down quickly. He quickly left the market with Dustin May, but traded top prospect James Tibbs III in a twist that sparked more distrust in him from the fanbase.
Fast forward almost a year, and Tibbs turned into a possible cornerstone for the Los Angeles Dodgers, hitting a slash line of .287/.407/.542 with 21 home runs, 21 doubles, and 72 RBIs, all while maintaining a .949 OPS.
The same thing happened with Tibbs' counterpart in the Rafael Devers trade, left-hander Kyle Harrison. He was a failed prospect when he was traded to Boston, but Boston changed his arsenal and helped him develop into a more dependable pitcher. After pitching in the bullpen with the Red Sox to end the 2025 season, he was traded in February in the Caleb Durbin trade with the Milwaukee Brewers.
He was putting up Cy Young-contending numbers this season before hitting the IL. He posted a 3.01 ERA with 101 strikeouts in just 83 2/3 innings pitched, with a 3.10 FIP. Both the ERA and FIP were under three for most of his season.
Rumors were swirling around the league that Boston was going to be big players at the deadline, much like past seasons. This time, they seemingly had their eyes on Athletics catcher Shea Langeliers, along with Angels shortstop Zach Neto. Nationals shortstop C.J. Abrams, while a lefty at the plate, was also considered to be an option for the Red Sox as well.
To the fans, it's repetition to the highest degree, and it's not a good thing.
Red Sox' Connelly Early trade might become a disaster
The Red Sox got absolutely fleeced in this trade because there is no reason why Early was traded in just a one-on-one player swap. He has much more value than Mead, who, according to Baseball Trade Values, is at just 11.4. Early is considered to be at 30.7 in terms of trade value. So this trade would've been automatically rejected by the Red Sox if BTV had anything to do with it.
Yes, Mead is having a good year. Yes, trading Early is still a massive overpay. However, if Mead does prove us wrong, then nobody will be complaining. To even cope with the overpay, Early has a FIP of 4.61 with an xFIP of 4.34, so he might be due for some regression soon. Even if he's also dealing with elbow inflammation and is still on the 15-day IL as well, his value has dropped slightly in the eyes of opposing GMs. If they're anything like the Nationals' President of Ops (and former Red Sox exec) Paul Toboni, then it's more than likely he was paying attention to this closely.
He might have even made the phone call first.
But if this bites the Red Sox again, then this, along with what may happen at the deadline and their future success this season, will ultimately cost Breslow his job. He has been firmly on the hot seat for the better part of 2026, with ownership already losing faith in him.
To many Boston fans, the canning would've been long overdue. It would be divine retribution in their eyes, and it may just be reality soon enough if this backfires.
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