The Boston Red Sox have so many breakout candidates that it's hard to see for sure who will actually do so come this season. Think about the likes of Connelly Early, Johan Oviedo, Carlos Narvaez, Marcelo Mayer, Caleb Durbin, and even Ceddanne Rafaela.
However, the biggest breakout candidates are seemingly the most obvious: Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu, and Payton Tolle.
But the real question isn't who, but rather a "why". Why are Anthony, Abreu, and Tolle the breakout candidates? Why are they considered as such over any other deserving player on the roster? Why is someone that's not even on the roster, like Payton Tolle, seemingly a candidate?
These questions will be answered right here.
Roman Anthony
Let's start with Anthony, who has already proved his prowess last summer before he suffered an oblique injury that prematurely ended his rookie campaign. Before that point, he played 71 games after getting called up in June, batting .292, hitting eight home runs, 18 doubles, and 75 hits in 257 at-bats. He also walked 40 times, which is a huge part of his game as he's one of the more disciplined hitters in that lineup at only 21 years old.
This spring training, he had a .261 batting average with six hits, driving in two runs, and walking three times in 27 at-bats. But he broke out in the World Baseball Classic for Team USA, hitting .280 with seven RBIs and two key home runs against the Dominican Republic and Mexico.
Turning 22 in May this year, he'll be permanently in the leadoff spot ahead of Trevor Story, Jarren Duran, and Willson Contreras in that order. He's on pace for an even bigger breakout for 2026. Eno Sarris from The Athletic predicted that he would win the AL MVP this year. That's how much of an impact Anthony has the potential to have on this team.
Expect great things from him moving forward...
Wilyer Abreu
Already a two-time Gold Glove winner in right field in just three seasons, Abreu had tapped into his power in 2025, hitting 22 home runs in 115 games played. While he had a bit of a down year after suffering an oblique and a calf injury, this year is going to be his official breakout.
His performance in the World Baseball Classic for the championship-winning Team Venezuela has shown in spades that he's going to partake in a stellar season for the Red Sox in 2026. He hit the game-winning three-run home run that beat Japan in the WBC Semifinals, then hit the insurance home run that was the one-run difference-maker in the WBC Finals against Team USA. During his time playing for Venezuela, he drove in seven runs on six hits in 29 total at-bats (seven games).
He has reportedly gained some muscle mass and slimmed down due to cutting elements like soda from his diet. He's seemingly more physically fit and in the best shape he's ever been in, and just by that alone, that should determine a breakout. Plus, he's been better against lefties after working on it all offseason with a pitching machine.
If Abreu breaks out, don't forget that I told you so...
Payton Tolle
While he's not on the active roster right now, being sent down to Triple-A Worcester to get more reps and better his arsenal, Payton Tolle is due for a breakout more than anybody.
After an outstanding debut against the Pittsburgh Pirates, striking out eight batters in 5 1/3 innings pitched, his faults were showing more and more, getting blown up in starts against the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Athletics, giving up seven runs and four home runs in just 5 innings. He was moved to the bullpen and did decent for what it was worth, posting a 3.00 ERA, striking out seven, and giving up only two earned runs in six innings.
However, he had a rough start this Spring, giving up three earned runs in 3 2/3 innings while striking out only one batter in those two games. However, in his next (and last) two starts, he finally got in the groove against the New York Yankees and the Atlanta Braves, striking out seven Yankees and five Braves batters without giving up a single run both times. He came in relief in both games, mind you...
Against the Yankees and pitched three full innings, yet still struck out seven batters and gave up only one hit. That was, by far, his best start. He gave up four hits against the Braves in four innings, but still didn't give up a run. Those two appearances alone dropped his ERA from 7.36 to 2.53.
He's added a cutter and a curveball to his arsenal and has refined his changeup this offseason. There's more to him than he's putting on the table right now, and that potential will be crafted and polished in AAA this year.
Out of anything in particular, barring injuries, he's an underlying breakout candidate for this year. If Johan Oviedo doesn't work out in the bullpen or someone in the rotation goes down, Tolle's number will be on speed dial.
Conclusion
While two of these three men are more of the obvious, the biggest breakout candidate in my opinion, is Payton Tolle. He's the one with a lot to prove, and has the potential to do just that and then some.
This may not be definite, but if these three men play out like we hope they would, there won't be any complaints, and we'll be looking at a World Series contender.
Stay tuned for this season. It's going to be a fun one...