Baseball involves a lot of luck, and such small events often influence the legacy of a season, if not a franchise. This year, the Boston Red Sox are in an especially tight race, pitted against several foes who each have suffered or benefited from unusual luck, meaning entry to October will be determined more by chance and timeliness than a test of superior skill or talent.
Boston Red Sox's Outlook Will Hinge on Luck This Fall
The Red Sox have been unlucky, despite having the second-best run differential in the American League. Early on, the team suffered from a significantly poor account in one-run games, posting as low a record as 6-17 before regressing to the mean elevated them to a more reasonable 21-26. As a result, Boston possesses a win-loss distribution about three games worse than could be expected by their runs differential, as measured by Bill James’ Pythagorean record (85-70 instead of 88-67).
With the margin of error already so low, that rough patch of one-score efforts will influence their postseason matchups, if not remove them entirely from October.
The Red Sox are not the only team in the American League East struck by such unusual deviations. The Toronto Blue Jays have been over-performing all year long relative to both their run totals and to preseason evaluations of their roster (Fangraphs had them finishing last, albeit with a winning record of 82-80). With their real result of 89-66, the Blue Jays are still five leagues above their Pythagorean mark, in part thanks to a 27-20 record in one-run contests.
Meanwhile, the New York Yankees own the best run-difference in the American League and are four games below their own Pythagorean posting, 87-68 instead of 91-64. They have essentially split 43 one-score games, going 21-22.
For once, the Tampa Bay Rays have suffered from unusual occurrences rather than deriving advantage therefrom. Despite outscoring their opposition by a margin of 45, Tampa is seven games below that standard at 75-80; their one-run game mark is 22-28.
The Cleveland Guardians' late run provides yet another contender outperforming their peripherals. Like Toronto, the Guardians have been doing so much of the season, but to a greater extent. In April, they allowed 26 more runs than they scored, but won 15 of 26 games. After beating the Tigers on May 24, the Guardians had a record of 29-22 and were only three games out despite a remaining deficit of minus-6 runs. Now they sit a single, slender game behind both Detroit and Boston, seven games above their Pythagorean record, all despite an unexceptional record in one-run games (24-20).
Even the AL West holds two more discrepancies, which complicate Boston’s October hopes: the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers. The former, continuing their long, slow decline from their 2022 World Series victory, have the same record as Cleveland, though only four games above their Pythagorean performance. Houston has the finest one-run record among contenders, having won 27 of 43 games.
The Rangers are a perennial conundrum. Remaining within a few games of .500 throughout this summer, Bruce Bochy’s squad finally seemed to break through in mid-August. Since then, they have dropped six straight and all but fallen out of postseason consideration. Their differential is the best in the West, but the record that counts is eight games worse.
In summary, bad luck in close games has pushed the Red Sox through a tight race where chance outweighs talent. While the Rangers and Rays have suffered to Boston’s advantage, the Guardians, Astros, and Blue Jays all possess a certain edge that could eliminate the league’s second-most talented team from October contention.