The Red Sox had signed Ceddanne Rafaela to an 8-year, $50M extension after his 2023 season, hoping that his talents would develop. It was a low-risk deal, and the Red Sox can fork up $6.3M a season regardless. His fielding is worth the money, at least, but his offense still has much to be desired. After hitting 20 HRs in his time in AA & AAA in 2023, he has yet to transition that power into the big leagues.
Rafaela is one of the best defensive centerfielders in baseball. He's had a career fielding percentage of .991 at that position and is desperately trying to claim it as his own. However, a certain #1 prospect in baseball named Roman Anthony is also playing center in AAA, and is knocking on the door. With Roman, he's a potential five-tool player. Rafaela is not.
Red Sox Should Consider Trading Ceddanne Rafaela
Ceddanne's offensive struggles were the real deal in 2024. He batted .246, with an OPS of .664 and 151 strikeouts. But he did slug 15 home runs with 23 doubles on the season, so the promise was there. He made some adjustments to his swing during the offseason and gained some muscle in the process. He's shown that he wants to work, but his old habits continue soaring on.
The one thing that frustrates fans is that Ceddanne is a very, very aggressive hitter. Instead of laying off fastballs high in the zone or curveballs in the dirt, he swings and misses or hits a weak ground ball to the left side. There's a stat called the "O-Swing%", also called "chase rate". This indicates the percentage rate of how many pitches a batter swings at that are outside the strike zone. His career O-Swing% is 44.1%, which, for perspective, the league average is at around 30%. That's insanely high, and his plate discipline is costing him at-bat after at-bat.
However, something clicked with Rafaela these past few weeks. Since May 2nd, he's been hitting .333, with 5 doubles, 21 total bases, and all with an OPS of .864. While this is not a drastic improvement, his batting average went from .206 at the start of May to .250. In some ways, that's still an improvement, and for Ceddanne, it's a good first step. But even this won't make his stay in the center permanent, and this will most likely be a temporary one when Anthony comes up.
Now the question is, why haven't they done it already? That answer is actually really simple; they want to see what they can get out of Rafaela before making any decisions. Development in players is key, not just with Anthony, Mayer, or Campbell, for that matter. This also applies to Ceddanne. He's only 25 and has shown that he can handle center field full-time, so he needs to add some consistency. If he's not consistent by June, then Roman will be called up. It's not an if, it's more of a when. Most likely, GM Craig Breslow wants Rafaela to show his production on the field and boost up his stock before they trade him.
Will they trade Rafaela and finally bring Roman up to the bigs? Or will the Red Sox move him around as a super-utility man, much like Brock Holt did in his playing days?