The Boston Red Sox are playing a dangerous game: taking risks on the team’s top prospects by signing them to long-term extensions before they are established, major league players. During the team’s recent nationally televised game against the St. Louis Cardinals, reporter Ken Rosenthal spoke on the team’s manager, Alex Cora’s, comments. Rosenthal mentioned that Cora told him how the team-building dynamic changes when you have multiple players signed to these types of deals.
The Atlanta Braves started the trend of signing young core players to long-term extensions in 2019 when they signed a pair of future all-stars, Ozzie Albies to a seven-year deal and Acuna Jr. to an eight-year deal. At the time, Albies was coming off consecutive 24-home run seasons, and Acuna Jr. had just finished a breakout season that saw him finish fifth in NL-MVP voting. Ever since then, teams across the major leagues have adopted the Braves' philosophy to ensure their young talent is under contract at a discounted price long term.
The Boston Red Sox have adapted this strategy and taken it to another level by signing multiple young players who have yet to establish themselves in the big leagues to long-term deals. In recent years, the team has signed homegrown centerfielder Ceddanne Rafaela, second baseman/outfielder Kristian Campbell, and former top prospect Roman Anthony to contracts that last into the 2030s. Of the three players, Rafaela is the most accomplished, winning the AL Gold Glove, but the hope is that Anthony, especially after a stellar World Baseball Classic, can blossom into one of the best players in baseball.
While this front office philosophy does ensure players stay in Boston long term, there is plenty of risk associated with it. One is that the contracts are based on projections rather than proven production. As a result, not all players will become perennial all-stars like Albies and Acuna Jr. did for the Braves. Another is that while operating under a salary cap, it is more difficult to make significant additions to the roster with so many players locked in long-term.
Red Sox Took Huge Risk Dishing Out Extensions to Unproven Players
Most importantly, this philosophy can upset veterans in the locker room. Established players like All-Star MVP Jarren Duran have been operating with no financial security, as this year he is playing on a one-year, $7.7 million contract per Spotrac and has two more years of arbitration. Another veteran is right fielder, Wilyer Abreu, who last season put up 22 home runs and a 3.2 WAR, and is playing this season on a one-year, $810,000 contract per Spotrac before his three years of arbitration.
This new front office mindset is risky for the Boston Red Sox, and in my opinion, it is rewarding the wrong players. As opposed to ensuring established veterans such as Abreu and Durran are in Boston long-term, the team has chosen to reward potential production from its prospects.
There’s no denying why teams are following this front office approach. The allure of locking in young, highly touted prospects early can prove cost-effective, with tremendous upside. But the margin for error is thin, especially when rewarding potential over production.
For a team and a city that is accustomed to raising championship banners, the Boston Red Sox front office is playing a dangerous game with its top prospects. While it does have the chance to pay off in a big way, it carries the risk of the team carrying multiple underperforming contracts that will leave the organization wondering where it all went wrong.
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