According to Jeff Passan on the Pat McAfee Show, the Boston Red Sox are reportedly not trading anybody. This includes players who were rumored to be shipped off, like Aroldis Chapman, Jarren Duran, Lucas Giolito, and Alex Bregman. He strongly believes this won't be the case. Why wouldn't he think this?
The Red Sox are the hottest team in baseball, winning 10 straight games for the first time since their World Series-winning season in 2018. They were originally 43-44 at the end of June, being 4th in their division with little to no signs of life. Now, they're 53-45, have climbed to second in the Wild Card spot, and are only 3.0 games back of first-place in their division. This includes the 10-game winning streak that they're currently on through the break. Now, who's contributing? Well...everyone.
Starting Rotation
There are three key contributors to the Red Sox's sudden turnaround. Garrett Crochet (obviously), Brayan Bello, and Lucas Giolito are the pieces that have been carrying that front-end of the rotation this season.
With Crochet, there's no explanation needed for him. He's recorded a 10-4 season, with an AL-leading 2.23 ERA (now tied with Skubal in that stat), a league-leading 160 strikeouts, and an AL-leading ERA+ of 185...also a complete game shutout as well. He's a Cy Young contender and has a very good chance at winning it, too. He would be the first Red Sox Cy Young winner since Rick Porcello in 2016.
Brayan Bello, in his last seven starts, has been amazing. In that time, he's posted an ERA of 2.36, struck out 37 batters, and gave up only 12 earned runs in 45.2 innings pitched. He's also pitched a complete game. Bello has been superb as of late, and there's seemingly no sign of slowing down.
Lucas Giolito is one of the biggest stories on that Red Sox roster. In his first seven games of the season, he was continuing the route of his declining state and looking past his expiration date. He posted an ERA of 6.42, striking out only 27 batters, and giving up 24 earned runs in 33.2 innings pitched. But in his last 6 starts, he's been 5-0, struck out 37 batters, and has only given up THREE earned runs in his 38.2 innings pitched. His ERA is 0.70 during this stretch thus far.
Bullpen
Everyone in that bullpen this year has been excellent. The headliner here is Aroldis Chapman. He just made his 8th All-Star Game appearance and is maintaining an ERA of 1.18 and leading the bullpen with 58 strikeouts.
Garrett Whitlock has always been a great piece for Boston, and this year has more than confirmed this point. He's posted a 2.05 ERA with a 0.54 FIP in the month of July so far. Brennan Bernardino, albeit having an ERA of 12 in June, has not given up a single run in July before the break, with his ERA now back at 3.42 for the season.
Justin Wilson has been the more surprising relief arm this season. He was always a pitcher who emphasized heavily on his breaking pitches, but his former teams wanted him to pitch more with his fastball. This never panned out for him, and Andrew Bailey, who's perfect for Wilson's strengths as a pitcher, turned the 37-year-old's career around. Since 2021, his ERA was over 5 with 50 earned runs and an ERA+ of 85. Now, his ERA is at 2.48 with 34 strikeouts, giving up the lowest HR rate (in a full season) of his career at 0.8.
The only person who would need to go is Greg Weissert. He's, ironically, at the best value of his career, albeit having 5 blown saves this season (tied for 2nd total this season behind Tanner Scott). He's a very inconsistent arm that could be sought after by teams that are desperate for one, such as the Diamondbacks or Cardinals.
Infield
The Red Sox infield has been amazing this season, and some of it comes from unsung heroes that have been fan favorites for some time now, who are just now getting their shot at truly helping this team win games.
With injuries to Triston Casas and Alex Bregman this season, many players were given their chances to contribute. This includes top prospects and depth infield pieces. Romy Gonzalez is the first name that comes to mind in this infield.
This has been a breakout moment for him, hitting with a .326 batting average, .945 OPS, a slugging percentage of .582, and an OPS+ of 158 in 44 games played. He's also struck out at the lowest rate of his career at just 22%. This month in July, he's batting over .400, with an OPS of 1.286, and has been creeping into the top of the order some nights. Most of his starts have been situational, mainly against lefties.
Abraham Toro has been a good depth piece in that lineup as well. He's a switch hitter, batting .271, with 11 doubles and 5 HRs, and has been playing good defense at first (better than Casas, at least). He's been struggling in July, hitting-wise, but maybe the break can help him get better at it. He's not a headliner at all, but he's a good piece for the bottom of their lineup to get on base.
The prospects have been performing decently, regardless of Kristian Campbell's stagnation and demotion to AAA. Marcelo Mayer has slightly improved in July, batting .235 with 4 doubles. He needs to fix that strikeout issue he's had all season, but that usually happens with young players. He'll tweak things in his swing, and he'll be more than okay.
Alex Bregman, who signed with the team this past offseason, has been one of the more consistent batters in the lineup. Before the injury, he batted .299 with 11 HRs, 17 doubles, an OPS of .938, and a slugging percentage of .553.
He was so good that even without playing for a month, he made the All-Star team as a sub. He came back just before the break, but he decided not to participate in the game due to wanting to focus on the regular season and making the playoffs. He's a true leader and is one of the main influences in the clubhouse.
The most surprising one of them all has been two pieces: Carlos Narvaez and Trevor Story. As for Narvaez, he came out of nowhere. He was acquired to be a bench bat or a platoon player at best, but he's been running with the starting catcher job.
He broke out in May after the Connor Wong injury, as he recorded a .356 batting average with a .961 OPS. In his first full season as a big leaguer, he's been batting .273 with 8 HRs and with a walk rate of 10.5. His biggest strength is the latter stat, seeing the most pitches per plate appearance with a 4.14 pitches/PA (team average is 3.89). His fielding has been great as well, with the most caught stealings in baseball (20) and assists (43).
Trevor Story, on the other hand, is finally healthy and is coming back to his former self (slowly). He's inconsistent, yes, but in the month of July, he's been batting .391 with 3 HRs and 12 RBIs. For the entire season, he's been batting .257 with 15 HRs and (funny enough) has been leading all of baseball in stolen base percentage with 100% (14/14).
Overall, he's been a big contributor, even with an improved glove as well, leading the league in double plays turned (55) and assists (247).
Outfield
The outfield has been stellar, with Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, Roman Anthony, and Rob Refsnyder with the passwords in the fort.
Many consider a logjam in that outfield, and to be fair, it's the right way of thinking. Letting go of a certain piece in that loaded outfield is an inevitability, mainly Jarren Duran. However, things aren't as simple as they seem. With this 10-game winning streak before the All-Star Break, they're not considered to do an addition by subtraction at the deadline.
If they keep pace, Breslow may just keep all pieces and trade some pieces in their loaded farm system.
Why wouldn't Breslow think this? Especially with how on fire the Red Sox have been. Duran is leading the league in triples (10), and leading the AL in plate appearances and legitimate at-bats (which show how durable he is). He's also the other leader in the clubhouse, a true spark plug on that roster.
The only downside is his sudden strikeout issue this season, being the second on the team in that category (103), which is also affecting his batting average, which is currently at .258. He's been getting better in July, batting .302 with 11 RBIs, so hopefully he'll keep this pace going into the heart of August and September.
Refsnyder deserves a mention, too. He's been in the leadoff spot for Cora as the lefty masher alongside Romy. Against lefties, he's been batting .292 with 4 HRs, 14 RBIs, and 12 walks in 87 plate appearances. In the leadoff spot specifically, he's been batting .316. When he's batting cleanup, he's batting .289 with 11 hits. He's a good depth piece to have, especially when the Red Sox have been hindered by injuries this year.
Meanwhile, Roman Anthony got called up due to a Wilyer Abreu injury and has not seen the minor leagues again. He started slow, with a .210 batting average in June. But in July, he's breaking out in our very eyes, batting .341 with 1 HR, 7 RBIs, and 5 walks, all with an OPS of .931. The 21-year-old should be able to keep this up, but time will tell.
Speaking of breakouts, Wilyer Abreu has been one of those pieces in that outfield. He's leading the team with 18 HRs, 11 doubles, an OPS of .822, and an OPS+ of 125. The reigning AL Gold Glove is cementing his legacy as a future Silver Slugger as well. He had a red-hot start to the season, hitting .296 with 6 HRs and 21 RBIs in his first 30 games. He also lowered his strikeout rate this year (23.6%) compared to last (28%), all while leading the AL in total fielding runs above average with 11, which means, in simple terms, he's saved 11 runs from scoring.
But the biggest breakout this season has been Ceddanne Rafaela. He's always been excellent on defense, but his hitting was always lackluster until recently. He started out batting .241 in April, then .267 in May, and .283 in June. He's slowly been developing his hitting, and officially broke out in July. He's been batting .390, with 5 HRs, 15 RBIs, 6 doubles, .902 slugging percentage, and an OPS of 1.307 in 12 games. That is UNHEARD of, especially with him.
Rafaela has single-handedly been carrying the bottom half of the order, and for good reason.
Conclusion
This team is scary, and Jeff Passan & Ken Rosenthal are right. The Red Sox could very well be World Series contenders. If Breslow trades anybody in that clubhouse, the team chemistry is thwarted. Many believe this is like 2004; a proven team that had been struggling all year, but the clubhouse gets together and their power of friendship vanquishes all.
Now, the Red Sox aren't that '04 group. They're potentially even better. At their full potential, they have no flaws except for their pitching... and that is what they need to get. Joe Ryan has been a good candidate for them recently, and he's been spending some quality time with Garrett Crochet. If they can give up a prospect or two, there's no doubt that the Red Sox could very well be said World Series contenders.
But please, get rid of the only liability in that bullpen (Greg Weissert) immediately. That's all we would ever ask in consideration of trading someone on the roster.