Patriots vs. Bengals: Storylines, Matchups, and Predictions

Patriots Head Back Home To Take On Bengals In Week 6

In Week 6 of NFL action, the Patriots return home to Gillette Stadium to take on the 2-3 Cincinnati Bengals.

The Pats are back at home once again, and the crowd will be pumped up to welcome quarterback Tom Brady to his first home game of the season. The intensity of crowd alone will surely excite the entire team during this game, as will the team’s eagerness to stay atop the AFC standings.

This game features several interesting story lines and match ups, which will be highlighted below.

Key Storylines

Tom Brady Attempts to Convince the League that his Stellar Week 5 Performance was not a Fluke

Brady came back with a bang last week, torching the Browns secondary for 406 yards and 3 TDs and earning AFC Player of the Week honors. While many Patriots fans believe that this performance was just the start of another rock-solid season for Brady, others are skeptical. First of all, Brady’s dominance came against the Browns, who rank 27th in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ Team Defense DVOA, a statistic which measures how well a defense has played over the season (and is adjusted based on a team’s strength of schedule).

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The Browns are notoriously bad against tight ends, as they rank 30th in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ DVOA against tight ends. Brady exploited this weakness by throwing 3 touchdowns to Martellus Bennett and finding Rob Gronkowski for 109 yards.

Because of this, people believe that Brady will take a step back against the better Bengals defense and won’t play as well during the rest of the season. Fans and experts say that age will quickly catch up to him, as he is 39, and his talent may dwindle away soon.

Sunday is a perfect opportunity for Brady to shut all the mouths of his haters, as he has always embraced the role of the underdog and relishes the chance to prove people wrong. Although most quarterbacks lose a step when the reach age 39, Brady is the best quarterback to ever play the game. If anyone can overcome the odds to succeed, its him. Expect Brady to have a solid game on Sunday and to keep the Patriots offense rolling.

Brandon LaFell Returns to Foxborough to Face His Former Team

Brandon LaFell was a key part of the Patriots’ Super Bowl Champion offense in 2014, catching 74 passes for 953 yards and 7 TDs. However, he was injured to start the 2015 season and was forced to miss its first 5 weeks. He wasn’t as effective when he returned, as he struggled with drops and fell out of favor with the Patriots coaching staff. Although LaFell did finish with a modest 515 yards in 11 games in 2015, he was not the key offensive cog that he was the season before.

Due to his issues with drops and his subsequent reduced role in 2015, the Patriots opted not to re-sign LaFell once he became a free agent last offseason. This gave the Bengals the opportunity to sign him, and he has functioned as their number 2 receiver this season.

Mandatory Credit: Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports /

He has caught 21 passes for 276 yards in his first 5 games with the Bengals, and had a 2-touchdown game last week against the Cowboys. LaFell will enter Foxborough with a chip on his shoulder, looking to prove Bill Belichick and the entire Patriots organization wrong for letting him go in free agency. The Patriots should watch out for this extra motivation and make sure that they keep LaFell in check.

Matchups to Watch

Cincinnati WR A.J. Green vs. New England Secondary

Green has again started off the year as one of the NFL’s elite wide receivers, as he is 2nd in the NFL with 518 receiving yards. However, these gaudy statistics mask the fact that Green has been a boom-or-bust reciever this year.

He has done most of his damage in 2 games, with 180 yards and a touchdown against the miserable Jets secondary in Week 1 and 173 yards against Miami’s below average pass coverage. That’s almost 70% of his yards coming in these two games, as he had 38, 77, and 50 yards in his other games against the Steelers, Broncos, and Cowboys, respectively. Green and Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton seem to struggle against teams who are solid against the pass, but the Patriots have only been the 27th best team against the pass according to Football Outsiders.

This could be a matchup for Dalton and Green to exploit, as Green could very well have 100+ receiving yards if Malcolm Bultler, Logan Ryan, Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, and other Patriots corners and safeties don’t have their heads in the game.

Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports /

The New England defensive backs certainly didn’t look great at times last week when they were getting burned by Browns wide receiver Andrew Hawkins and tight end Grady Barnidge.

On the other hand, Belichick most likely extensively prepared the team to cover Green because he is one of Cincinnati’s only dangerous offensive weapons. Will New England double cover Green with a safety and a corner? Will they place Malcolm Bulter in a 1 on 1 matchup with Green? This will be very interesting to keep an eye on.

Patriots Tight Ends vs. Cincinnati Secondary

One of the biggest stories from last week’s Patriots win was the ability of tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett to coexist. Both players seem to get along well on and off the field, which is great news for Patriots fans. Still, last week’s tight end performance needs to be taken with a grain of salt just like Brady’s performance, as it came against the lowly Browns. Facing a more formidable Bengals defensive unit will be the first real test for the Patriots monstrous tight end duo.

I can easily see the two tight ends having effective games again, as they are both nightmare matchups. Facing the Patriots is a challenge for even the best secondaries in the NFL, as Bennett and Gronk are very hard to take down in the open field and are especially deadly in the end zone where they can utilize their size and strength. Both tight ends should have at least 50 yards receiving, and at least one of them should catch a TD.

Patriots Front Seven vs. Bengals Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard

Last week, New England absolutely smothered Cleveland’s rushing attack and limited Isaiah Crowell to 22 yards on 13 carries. Crowell has been one of the NFL’s best running backs in 2016, and he was averaging 6.5 yards per carry prior to his game against the Patriots. The Patriots were able to smother the run partly because they didn’t have to worry much about Cleveland’s lackluster passing attack. Still, the front seven’s performance last week was very much worthy of praise, as they had been the first group to shut down Crowell this season.

This week, New England gets to face a pair of struggling running backs, Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard. Hill has only averaged 3.8 YPC this year (233 yards on 63 carries), while Bernard has been slightly less effective with 3.5 YPC (118 yards on 34 carries).

This is a juicy matchup for New England’s defensive line and linebackers, who should easily be able to shut down Hill and Bernard.

Make sure to watch 2nd-year defensive tackle Malcom Brown, who attempts to continue his breakout against the Bengals. He was one of the key contributors in taking down Crowell last week, and could turn into one of the better defensive tackles in the NFL if he continues to develop this season.

Another New England front seven member to keep at eye out for is Elandon Roberts, a rookie linebacker out of Houston. Roberts seemingly came out of nowhere to lead the team in tackles last week, earning him praise from coach Bill Belichick. Roberts could turn out to be something special, as it is not common to see a sixth round draft pick step up this way in his rookie year.

Next: Patriots Week 6 Predictions

Final Score Prediction:

41. 47. Final. 17. 56

The Patriots and the crowd will be fired up by Brady’s return to Foxborough, and this should lead to a huge win for the team. Brady will have 300+ yards passing and 2+ TDs, and the New England defense will make an impact by forcing at least two turnovers.

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