Boston Red Sox 2017 Player Previews: Pablo Sandoval

It seems safe to say that Pablo Sandoval‘s contract with the Boston Red Sox has not lived up to expectations so far, maybe 2017 will change that.

2015 was a complete disappointment and 2016 saw a severe weight issue combined with a shoulder injury for Boston Red Sox third baseman Pablo Sandoval. Sandoval was beaten out for the starting third base job by Travis Shaw (now with Milwaukee) and after only seven plate appearances, was declared out for the season.

Even while not on the field in 2016, Sandoval still took steps towards improvement. He understood the problems with his weight and worked to make changes in his life that would enhance his skills on the field.

He spent time working out with Miguel Cabrera and Jose Altuve, fellow Venezuelans. Sandoval took advantage of Instagram’s new story feature to share daily updates on his workout routine. Fans could watch Sandoval take on agility training and weight sled work outside in the morning, before moving indoors for standard weight room work and a rather intense boxing regimen. He looked serious about getting back in shape and wanted to let the world know it.

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With 2016 being a lost year, the best way to predict Sandoval’s 2017 performance is going to have to be to look over his past few full seasons. Before coming to Boston, Sandoval was a good hitter.

He began his career great (.330/.387/.556 with 25 home runs and 90 RBI in his first full season), but never reached those levels again at the plate. Since 2013, Sandoval has not hit above .280 and has only surpassed 75 wRC+ twice in his entire career. His one full season in Boston saw him hit .245 with a pitiful .292 on-base percentage and only ten home runs.

One of the biggest issues when Sandoval came to Boston, was a large spike in his plate discipline metrics. Fangraphs measures several swing percentages to determine how aggressive a hitter is compared to the average. Sandoval has always been a free swinger, but 2015 saw his most aggressive year since his 42 games as a rookie in 2008. Sandoval swung at 62.2% of the pitches he saw, above his career average of 57.4% and well above the MLB average of 46.9%. He got bailed out by having a contact percentage of 82.7%, which is right about at his career average, but his .245 batting average means he was still not getting on base.

Sandoval’s O-Swing percentage (swings on pitches outside the strike zone) was at a career high of 47.8% in 2015 (again, well above the MLB average of 30.6%), but his Z-Swing percentage (swings on pitches inside the strike zone) was a career low of 75.2%. Of course, that was still above the MLB average of 66.9%.

This could account for why Sandoval walked a career low 25 times, even though he was still striking out less often than other batters. He was chasing too many pitches outside of the zone and simply grounding them out (career high 48.9% ground ball rate in 2015).

These percentages explain why Sandoval’s struggles should not simply be attributed to his weight. This is not to discount the genuine weight problem, though. It plays a significant factor, especially on defense and the basepaths, but Sandoval’s over-aggression caused him just as many issues as his weight did.

A slimmer and healthier Sandoval is certainly a good sign, but he needs to work on plate discipline as well. It is difficult to correct career long trends, but drawing Sandoval closer to the MLB averages is a step in the right direction. When he swings at better pitches, he may improve his quality of contact as well, considering Fangraphs rated him just barely above “Poor” in their hard contact percentage scale (24.5% Hard% in 2015, with 23% being “Poor”).

Sandoval is a hard man to predict. If he truly has his weight in control, then he should be closer to the .270 hitter he was in San Francisco with a home run total in the mid-teens. If he can control the head of his bat, he could even reach thirty doubles since he should be a little quicker now.

Next: Cookie Betts Player Preview

The biggest mark of a successful season will be if Sandoval does not lose his job at some point.

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