Boston Red Sox 2017 Player Previews: Rick Porcello

After a miserable first season with the Boston Red Sox, Rick Porcello shocked the world by winning the 2016 American League Cy Young award.

When Rick Porcello was traded to the Boston Red Sox before the 2015 season, people thought they knew what they were getting: a groundball pitcher with low strikeout numbers and an ERA in the mid-4’s who could win games in the mid-teens.

What actually appeared in Boston was a pitcher who was 4-9 by July 1st, in the midst of a personal seven game losing streak, with a 6.08 ERA. Porcello was ushered away to Pawtucket with an injury by the end of the month and did not return until August. He seemed hardly worth the four-year, $82.5 million extension he received before even starting a game in a Red Sox uniform.

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When Rick Porcello returned from his injury, he was a new pitcher. He carried his refreshed mechanics into the 2016 season and came out the other side with the American League Cy Young award in hand.

Porcello began the season 5-0 with a 2.76 ERA and finished the first half with an 11-2 record. He went 11-2 again in the second half and finished with a 3.15 ERA and a league leading 5.91 strikeout to walk ratio. He only walked 32 batters all season, compared to 189 strikeouts. Porcello went 13-1 at Fenway Park, with a 2.97 ERA and only eight home runs allowed.

His strikeout total was a career high, which explains how Porcello was able to have this success despite not being able to get back to his groundball roots. His groundball percentage was a career low at 43.1% (still a good total), while his flyball ratio was a career high at 38%. He still allowed 23 home runs over the season, but his ability to limit other men from reaching base beforehand kept his run total down and kept the Boston Red Sox in games.

Can Porcello repeat his Cy Young performance in 2017?

Looking at Porcello’s current Spring Training statistics could lead to a bit of concern going into 2017, but spring stats are rarely something worth losing sleep over.

He is 2-0 in three starts, but has allowed nineteen hits and nine runs in his ten innings to the tune of an 8.19 ERA. It could be a bit of a cause for concern, but it should not be forgotten that Porcello had a 9.77 ERA during last year’s Spring Training and was nearly flawless during the regular season. This could simply be the way Porcello works: get the kinks out before the season starts. Judging by his track record, there should not be much to worry about going forward.

Sep 24, 2016; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Rick Porcello (22) walks back to the dugout against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /

A more important idea to consider is that last year was by far the best of Porcello’s career. It is unfair to expect him to win 22 games every year going forward, but having a career year now brings up two intriguing questions: a) how can we know that Porcello is truly an ace after just one season? and b) is that kind of performance at age 27 indicative of what Porcello will deliver through the rest of his prime?