New England Patriots: ESPN's FPI projects a monster year in Foxboro

The New England Patriots will have another banner year in 2017 according to ESPN’s FPI projections. I’d be okay with that.

2016 was spectacular, and ESPN thinks the New England Patriots can win it all again. While projections can’t truly predict every aspect of an NFL season, they do provide us with some insight as to just how good some teams may be in the upcoming year.

ESPN’s football power index (FPI) is run by the company’s sports analytics department and they project total wins, probabilities to win the division, to make the playoffs, to make it to and win the Super Bowl.

So how do they do that? I’ll let ESPN explain.

"“In short, a team’s FPI rating combines its efficiency ratings on offense, defense, and special teams — based on each unit’s expected points added per play — with the sum of all three squad ratings yielding the overall FPI rating. (For more on how FPI is calculated, click here and here.) We then use these ratings to simulate the NFL season 10,000 times in order to derive a team’s chances to win its division, make the playoffs, win the Super Bowl, etc.”"

2017 AFC East Projections

According to the FPI projections, New England will run away with the AFC East title once again. The system has the Patriots at 11.8 wins and 4.2 losses. Round that out to a 12-4 record and the Patriots have a 92.3% chance to win the division. That’s the largest chance of anyone winning their division in the NFL. The Seattle Seahawks are second in the NFC West with a 75.8% chance.

In the AFC East, ESPN predicts the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills to both be around 9-7, while the New York Jets are projected for 5.2 wins.

2017 Playoff Probabilities

It’s no surprise here that the Patriots take the top spot once again. In the AFC only four teams are projected with a better than 50% chance to make the playoffs. New England leads the way at 96.2%, followed by Pittsburgh (75.9%), Oakland (56.4%), and Kansas City (56.3%).

The Patriots are the only team projected with over a 50% chance at the AFC’s #1 seed at 51.1%. The Steelers are a distant second at 15.2%.

Super Bowl LII Probabilities

New England also stands alone on top as the only team projected with above a 50% chance to reach Super Bowl LII. The Patriots have a 50.7% chance according to the FPI. They’re followed by the Seahawks at 22.8% and the Packers at 19.6%. Those two teams flip-flop though in their projection to win the game. ESPN’s FPI gives Green Bay a 9.8% chance and Seattle a 9.6% chance. The Patriots are the clear favorite however. They have a 34.7% chance to raise their sixth Lombardi trophy.

The Steelers have the next best chance in the AFC to win the big game, at 8.5%.

2017 Best Matchups

Beyond the simple projections of standings and Super Bowl favorites, the FPI number given to each team helps to give an insight as to what the best games of the season may be. The top-4 games in terms of FPI all involve the New England Patriots, but they’re all on the road.

The best matchup of the season is the Patriots at Steelers game in Week 15 on December 17th. That one is followed by the Week 10 matchup with the Broncos, Week 5 against the Buccaneers, and Week 2 against Drew Brees’ Saints.

2017 Most Lopsided Matchups

The Patriots will also be involved in two of the top-5 most lopsided NFL games in 2017. They’re in the top lopsided game in their Week 17 home matchup with the New York Jets, and they come in at #4 in Week 8 against the Los Angeles Chargers.

Next: Patriots Week 1 Opponent Breakdown: Kansas City Chiefs

This will surely be a memorable season if the New England Patriots are as dominant as ESPN’s FPI projects. I just hope they lift another Lombardi trophy in February.

Home/New England Patriots

New England Patriots: ESPN’s FPI projects a monster year in Foxboro

By Logan Jakubajtys | Jun 1, 2017