What’s next for Boston Celtics if they fail in the playoffs
Other question marks
Terry Rozier and Marcus Morris are question marks.
Rozier is young and promising, and carries that swagger that Boston fans like. But he has really been a negative for this Celtics team this season, which his -7.4 net rating makes very clear. If you get lucky and bring him back for nothing, you do it and hope he returns to form, but if someone throws money at him, you probably let him walk. Marcus Morris has played the best basketball of his career, but with all the elite forwards on the team, you probably can’t afford to keep him either.
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From what Danny Ainge has said publicly, it sounds like he wants to bring back Kyrie Irving. He called the notion that Boston is better off without him insane. But you have to ask the same question with Irving that you do with Horford. How concerned are you about Irving earning close to $40 million when he’s 32?
Remember that Irving has bad knees, and remember that his game is nowhere near as multifaceted as Horford’s. Right now, Irving makes a team much better singularly because he’s such an amazing scoring talent, and it opens things up for others. If that skill drops off a bit, he doesn’t help you enough in other areas to be worth max money.
But if you’re Boston, you probably can’t get away with signing him for any less. Ainge probably offers him that money, but like with Horford, there’s a very real chance he doesn’t take it. As our own Tarringo Basile-vaughan put it, Kyrie just doesn’t seem to bleed green.
If Boston brings back Irving and Horford, without bringing back anyone else, Boston is going to be right at the projected $132 luxury tax threshold. At that point, they’re in a tight spot money-wise.
Bringing back Baynes, Rozier, Morris, Theis – these are moves that drive you deeper and deeper into the luxury tax, but your back is against the wall. Contenders at the luxury tax can’t fortify their roster with free agent additions worth more than the minimum, so there’s pressure to pay to keep the guys they have. But bringing the band back might mean a massive luxury tax bill.
If Irving and Horford are gone, the Boston Celtics are a young team that’s nowhere near championship contention. They still have developing stars and picks incoming, but they’d likely fall out of the elite-tier of the Eastern Conference for years.
They won’t have a ton of flexibility, either – with Brown and Tatum due to get paid in the next two years, they’ll become a very expensive team even with Irving and Horford out of the picture.
Next. Marcus Smart shoves confidence into the 76ers. dark
If you’re Danny Ainge, do you reinvest in this group? It’s a difficult question. How do you even assess a team that’s full of talent and is a top team by net rating, but is so inconsistent and joyless? If Boston falls in the first round this year, asking ownership to commit to years of massive payrolls is a pretty tall order.
How the Boston Celtics perform in the postseason will have massive implications for what happens with the team in the years to come.