How Boston Red Sox can fix pitching staff for 2020 and beyond
Great pitchers are made AND drafted
Quick, who was the last pitcher the Boston Red Sox selected in the first round of the amateur draft? That would be 2017, when the team selected Tanner Houck with the 24th selection in the first round. How about the last all-star pitcher the Red Sox drafted? That would be… 2006 2nd round pick Justin Masterson, who made a single all-star team with Cleveland in 2013.
Every GM and scout will tell you that drafting pitchers is a crap shoot. Plenty of highly regarded high school and college pitchers have failed to throw a single pitch in the big leagues, much less lived up to their all-star potential. For every Cole there’s a dozen Brien Taylors. And the opposite is also true. Jacob deGrom was a 9th round pick. Josh Hader didn’t hear his name called until the 19th round. Even Nolan Ryan lasted until the 12th round back in the day.
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But the Red Sox have seemed particularly snake bit when it comes to drafting and developing major league pitchers. The current rotation does not feature a single home grown prospect, unless you count the sporadic contributions of Brian Johnson (2012, 1st round).
E-Rod is the only regular Red Sox starter never to appear in a major league game for another team (he was acquired from the Orioles for Andrew Miller). The bullpen at least features a few pitchers drafted and developed in-house, including Barnes (2011, 1st round), Lakins (2015, 6th round) and Brandon Workman (2010, 2nd round).
Houck has moved quickly through the system and could factor into the team’s plans for the pitching staff in 2020, along with amateur free agent signee Hernandez and 2016 5th rounder Mike Shawaryn. Bryan Mata, an amateur signing like Hernandez, may be the team’s best hope for an impact starter in the minors.
But other recent top draft choices, including Jay Groome (2016, 1st round), Durbin Feltman (2018, 3rd round) and Teddy Stankiewicz (2013, 2nd round) seem to have a ways to go if they’re ever considered big league options. And 2013 1st rounder Trey Ball was such a miss that’s he’s turned to hitting in an effort to realize his major league dreams.
The Red Sox clearly need to reevaluate their approach to drafting and developing major league starting pitchers. Either that or they need to look at trading from a position of depth (an outfielder like Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr.or Jarren Duran) or corner infielder (Rafael Devers, Michael Chavis, Bobby Dalbec or Triston Casas) to infuse the system with high quality pitching prospects.
As the Red Sox learned the hard way this season, it gets expensive quickly if you have to constantly import established starting pitching from other teams. David Price is owed $31 million for the next three seasons. Sale is now on the books for $30 million for the next few seasons and $27.5 million for a couple more after that. Eovaldi is a relative bargain at just $17 million through 2022.
On the other hand, the Red Sox should look to the Cleveland Indians for how to build a sustainable pitching staff. For the last several years, the Indians success could primarily be attributed to the dynamic, mostly home grown starting pitching of Corey Kluber (acquired as a minor leaguer in 2010), Carlos Carrasco (acquired as a minor leaguer in 2009), Trevor Bauer (acquired after four major league starts in 2012) and Danny Salazar (signed as an amateur free agent in 2006).
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More importantly, when the team lost Kluber, Carrasco and Salazar to injuries and traded Bauer to both cut payroll and acquire much needed hitting, the Indians plugged in the minimum salaried Shane Bieber (2016, 4th round), Mike Clevinger (acquired as a minor leaguer in 2014), Zach Plesace (2016, 12th round) and Adam Civale (2016, 3rd round) without missing a beat.
Sustainable success requires a constant infusion of young, minimum salaried talent, no matter the size of your payroll. The Boston Red Sox have found gems with the bat in Betts, Devers, Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts and, most recently, Chavis. To compete in 2020 and beyond, they need to replicate that success on the mound as well.