The Boston Red Sox have become a pitching factory over their last two seasons, with many arms developed into key cogs in the rotation. The first wave came with Tanner Houck breaking out in 2024, Kutter Crawford becoming a solid #3 in their rotation and Brayan Bello following suit behind them.
Then came the second, with Hunter Dobbins claiming the fifth spot in the rotation in early April and never looking back...at least until a freak accident where he tore his ACL covering first base, prematurely ending his season.
Kyle Harrison, acquired in the Rafael Devers trade, was a revelation in the minors last season after making major adjustments to both his mechanics and pitching arsenal. He did very well in his limited time in Boston after the September call-ups, posting a 3.00 ERA with 13 strikeouts in 12.0 innings pitched.
However, all five of these arms seem to be at a disadvantage due to both Boston's offseason goals and the Sonny Gray trade.
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Tanner Houck
Houck was in a stretch to be both one of the best and worst in baseball. He was entering 2025 with an outstanding 2024 season and momentum out of the wazoo. This was his first All-Star season, and it made him the de facto ace of the Red Sox rotation that year. He posted a 3.12 ERA (brought down by a 4.11 ERA in his last 16 games of the season), with 154 strikeouts and the lowest HR/9 in the AL with 0.6.
However, Houck was not doing so well in 2025, posting an 8.04 ERA in nine games. He gave up 11 earned runs in just 2 1/3 innings against the Rays in St. Petersburg. Then, on May 12th against Detroit, he gave up 11 earned runs as well in the same amount of innings pitched (2 1/3). The Red Sox and everyone else from the stands and watching at home saw that something was terribly wrong with him.
That would be proven shortly afterwards, in the middle of May, when he was put on the 15-day IL with a right flexor strain. While trying to recover from said injury, he suffered a setback, moving to the 60-day IL in late July during the trade deadline. Predicting this when he suffered that setback, it was almost obvious that he was going to be entering Tommy John candidacy, if not, was one already.
That would be proven right, as Houck was one of the many in the same situation as those before him, where he could decline rapidly because of the flexor strain in his forearm. Many pitchers like Robbie Ray, who had the injury shortly after his 2021 Cy Young season, would never be the same again.
Even so, before his injury and the 2025 season, the team failed to extend him, with talks happening in the offseason prior. Whether that's a good thing or not is to be determined, but as of his return, which will most likely be in late August 2026 or the start of the next season, he'll be a free agent at the end of 2027.
Is he worth a contract extension at this stage? The timing couldn't have been worse for him. Don't expect him to be traded with him currently recovering, but he's trade bait until he presumably leaves in free agency for a prove-it deal. Even then, it's just terrible, no good, very bad luck for Tanner. He's recovering for a team that possibly doesn't even want him anymore.
Kutter Crawford
Crawford never pitched a game in 2025, having two different injuries to his belt. Firstly, he was behind in Spring Training reps due to having jumper's knee, or patellar tendinopathy in medical terms. He was put on the IL at the start of the season and was later put on the 60-day IL around the same time Houck went down. Crawford did try to recover, but he injured his wrist in an off-field injury at his house, "moving some stuff around".
He felt a pop in his wrist as it bent the other way and needed season-ending wrist surgery. Due to this freak accident, he wasn't able to solidify a spot in the Red Sox rotation. To further twist the wrist, he missed out on the team's first playoff appearance since 2021.
Gray has been added to the rotation, and the Red Sox are seemingly still in on Joe Ryan. That's not to mention others like Payton Tolle and Connelly Early making their debuts. Now the pressure is on for Crawford to prove himself in Spring Training.
That is, if he gets a chance to. He may be gone in a trade by New Year's if the rumors have anything to say about it. He may be stuck in the abyss of 2024 and won't leave until he's inevitably traded to another team that will give him said chance.
Patrick Sandoval
Sandoval was acquired in the 2024-25 offseason and was supposed to pitch this year. But he was recovering from Tommy John Surgery after he went down with a torn ulnar ligament at the end of 2024. He suffered a setback and wasn't able to pitch this past season, but is fully expected to be more than ready by Spring Training.
The problem is, he may not have a chance to be a part of the rotation. Unlike other pitchers that actually may have good value, Sandoval will not. His value is at the bottom tier, and if anything, he'll be a player/salary dump if anything. He's owed just $9 million next season, but with the acquisition of Gray, it adds $21 million to the payroll, putting it at a projected $224 million for 2026.
My prediction for Sandoval was thought out, and to put it simply, e should just be a long reliever to see how things progress. He shouldn't be traded. His best season was in 2022, when he posted just a 2.91 ERA with 151 strikeouts and a 9.1 K/9 in 148.2 innings pitched (27 starts). The Red Sox would most likely want to see what they can get out of him before they decide what to do with him.
As a potential sixth man in the rotation, it would most likely go to Payton Tolle if they add another starter this offseason. If not, Tolle will be the fifth man, and Sandoval will be the depth that will sub in a few times for the starters that need a rest, get injured, or have to skip a start. At his peak, he's a very good pitcher, but if he resorts to his 2024 self before his injury, when he posted an ERA over five, he'll just be another one in the dust.
Kyle Harrison
Harrison could make the rotation if Tolle doesn't pan out as a starter. However, given his work ethic and mentality, that may be a resounding "no". There is something to talk about with him, given that he did amazing work in his few appearances at the MLB level in Boston, helping them make the playoffs for the first time in four seasons. However, he may not be a sustainable piece.
He's been inconsistent in his three years in the league, not having an ERA less than three for any of them. But I'll rebut that with the organization reinventing his identity as a pitcher after working a few things out with his pitches. Adding a cutter and a different grip to his changeup had done miracles for him in AAA Worcester, earning him a call-up in early September.
Having high hopes for him, he could be one of the better pitchers on that staff. He just has to prove it. He will most likely be in the bullpen alongside Sandoval as a long reliever/depth option for the Red Sox, but guaranteeing him a spot in the rotation is a negative given the superior talent above him.
If he gets traded, he will already be the second piece out of the return from the Devers trade that's been run out of the Red Sox organization in just six months.
Hunter Dobbins
Dobbins had rough luck as a rookie, prematurely ending his season with a torn ACL just from covering first base. One wrong step and it ruined what had already been a promising season from him. Now when he comes back, there could be no room in that rotation.
Dobbins is the biggest question to gauge. He won't be traded because he's coming off a major injury and only had a cup of coffee in the bigs. He can start the year in AAA and see his progression, but if he does well, then there's another logjam on the Red Sox's hands.
There are a lot of what-ifs for DObbins, but that's not been his fault. It's due to the impeccable amount of talent in that rotation. The team can only fit five or six, and there are already more players waiting for a potential call-up behind him. Luis Perales is one who comes to mind, as he'll be due a call-up by June if everything works out for him. That's if he doesn't get traded this offseason.
Conclusion
Overall, there are so many questions going into the season for Boston, and it's not just about who they'll get in the offseason. That all ties to who will be on the team come April next year. With the offseason flying into December at rocket speed, we will surely get more of a visual on what happens.
But this is why we write the articles. Everyone needs clarity. Everyone needs a certain perspective, and there are so many perspectives left out there that haven't been touched on yet that will be in the next few weeks. Hopefully at least one of those can be answers to the Red Sox roster construction.