The Boston Red Sox have faced the New York Yankees three times in the postseason in the last two decades: 2004, 2018, and 2021. In each matchup, the Red Sox defeated their archrivals, twice winning the World Series after doing so.
For the first time, the AL East rivals are now pitted against each other in the Wild Card series in October, with the Red Sox and Yankees owning the American League's fifth and fourth seeds, respectively. With the action set to begin on Tuesday, here's a preview for the Red Sox's upcoming Wild Card series against the Yankees.
Yankees' Offense Lives and Dies by Aaron Judge
The Yankees boast a fearsome offensive roster, built around perennial MVP candidate Aaron Judge. They not only led the American League by a significant margin in runs scored (849, or 51 more than the runner-up Blue Jays) but also led the league in home runs (274, 36 more than Seattle) and walks (639, 95 more than Seattle).
Outside of Judge, this lineup is far less intimidating: their best hitters with less than 53 homers are Giancarlo Stanton and Ben Rice, the first of whom struck out in 34% of his plate appearances and cooled off considerably after a monster August (slash line dropped from .339/.431/.823 to .224/.294/.526). Rice, for his part, has posted an OPS of .805 after his .958 mark in April.
The Yankees lineup, in other words, is heavily dependent on two intertwined factors: Judge and the home run. When one or both of those fail, the offense becomes laden with strikeouts, as can be seen by their second-highest total in the AL. In such a short series, just one bad day could end their season.
Red Sox Relying on Southpaw Smashers
The Red Sox, despite finishing third in the AL in runs scored, have a patchwork lineup that proved steady rather than spectacular. The much-lamented loss of Roman Anthony has somewhat been mitigated with the revival of Masataka Yoshida and Ceddanne Rafaela’s latest hot streak. On the other hand, Wilyer Abreu has three hits in 22 plate appearances since returning from injury, and Alex Bregman’s OPS has dropped by 100 points since Aug. 1.
Boston’s most consistent bats are lefty-mashers Romy Gonzalez and Rob Refsnyder, especially with the Yankees starting southpaws Max Fried and Carlos Rodon in the first two games. Gonzalez has a platoon split of 260 points of OPS in favor of facing lefties, Refsnyder with 343. Despite rough parity this year, Trevor Story also has a track record of scorching opposite-sided hurlers, with a career OPS of .930 against them, compared to .778 when facing northpaws.
The best-case scenario for a Red Sox victory would be to batter Fried and Rodon early, with the trio of Gonzalez, Refsnyder, and Story placed at the top of the lineup. Refsnyder is more familiar with Rodon than any other pitcher he has faced in his career, with six hits, four of which went for extra bases, and four walks in 21 plate appearances.
Romy has struggled against that same pitcher (1-13) but has two hits and two walks against Fried in nine matchups. Story carries a .688 slugging percentage against Fried in 17 PAs, as well as two doubles against Rodon in 10 at-bats, plus a walk and a hit-by-pitch.
Yankee Staff Thin, Red Sox Depth and Quality
As previously mentioned, New York will rely on Fried and Rodon. Past them, the bullpen, despite being heavily re-built at the deadline, remains weak. Only David Bednar has proven reliably effective, and he has been worked to the hilt for this success, making five appearances in the last week of the season as New York tried to overtake Toronto.
Boston appears far better set in this regard. Garrett Crochet would win the Cy Young Award in any other season and may yet still; fears of his unprecedented workload have proven false, as he posted his best strikeout-to-walk ratio in September. The sole worry is an increased propensity to allow home runs, of which eight, twice as many as any other month, were hit against him.
Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito will start the second and, if necessary, third games, though in which order remains undeclared. Most likely, Bello’s greater success against Judge (two singles in 21 at-bats) and the Yankees (2.35 ERA in 11 starts) will earn him the nod, with Giolito held in reserve. Bello even has a 1.44 ERA at Yankee Stadium.
Compared to New York, Boston also possesses a much deeper and more reliable bullpen, headlined by Aroldis Chapman, who just had his best season at the age of 37, and Garrett Whitlock, who had a year just as good as his 2021 rookie campaign. Steven Matz andChris Murphy continue from the left side, while Justin Slaten and Greg Weissert are the primary right-handed middle relievers.
AL Wild Card Conclusion
While New York may have the best player in Aaron Judge, Boston maintains a situational advantage through platoon options and the bullpen. The Red Sox have already bested the Yankees in the regular season, winning nine of thirteen matchups, and possess greater tactical flexibility.
Anything can happen in a short series, but don’t be surprised if the Red Sox dominate the Yankees in their own home.