Walker Buehler was an excellent pitcher throughout his short career. From his best years between 2018 and 2021, he posted a 2.82 ERA, 620 strikeouts, and a 9.9 K/9.
Simply put, this guy strikes out everyone. In 2019 and 2021, he struck out over 200 batters, and in the latter year, he placed fourth in Cy Young voting. Sadly, he went under the knife for Tommy John in 2022 and returned in 2024. He infamously struck out former Red Sox Alex Verdugo to close out the World Series last year. From a distance, it seemed like he was coming back to his former self.
He signed a one-year prove-it deal, worth $21M with the Boston Red Sox, hoping things would turn around for him. Again, simply put, they haven't. There are some days when Buehler has it, and then there are most of his games where he gives up five runs. He recently gave up eight in his last start against Seattle and five against the Yankees.
Walker Buehler May Be Traded Before the Deadline
Buehler's ERA was at 3.95 after May 25th, and he hasn't found that flare again. He's given up more earned runs (21) than the batters he's struck out (17), and for a strikeout pitcher, that's a recipe for disaster. He's lost the command of his stuff. He'll walk a couple, try to find the plate, then mistakenly places a fastball down the middle, or a curveball that doesn't curve, and gives up a three-run home run. Looking at how he's been over the past four starts and, in general, his entire season? He's afraid.
Think about it. Buehler was once dominant. He was a big-game pitcher with electric stuff, pinpoint command, and confidence that would feed off of his performances. He's a very passionate player at that. Coming back from Tommy John gives pitchers that creeping fear: "What if I'm not that guy anymore?" Fear builds doubt, and doubt destroys aggression, which is crucial for a strikeout pitcher like Walker.
Pitchers like Buehler are used to missing bats. When that stops happening and hitters are making loud contact off his pitches, that obviously will destroy one's confidence. That leads to nibbling the zone, trying to be too perfect. This results in more walks, deeper counts, and eventually mistake pitches over the heart of the plate.
Post-rehab, pitchers often have a subconscious fear of re-injuring themselves or not fully trusting their mechanics. That split-second hesitation can throw off Buehler's arm speed, his release point, and his potential break on pitches. Everyone knows what he's capable of, but when things like that are off, everything spirals...including rumors going on nowadays that he'll be trade bait at the deadline.
With a terrible June and the infamous trade of Rafael Devers for questionable returns, this may close the door on Buehler's time in Boston.
Unless he gets his stuff back and pitches like everyone knows how he can, it's most likely he'll be traded before the deadline sooner rather than later.