Is the NFL Playoff Bye an Advantage or Disadvantage?
By DJ Smith
Dec 14, 2014; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) celebrates with head coach Bill Belichick (R) after clinching the AFC East title with a 41-13 win over the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
On Saturday night, while the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens were dueling it out in primetime, Tom Brady and the Patriots were sitting back enjoying their football-free weekend. Thanks to a 12-4 record, good for best record in the AFC and a first round bye, the Patriots were able to bypass Wild Card Weekend and jump right into the Divisional Round. But does this week off help or hurt the Patriots? Past results indicate that maybe the coveted bye week, isn’t such an advantage.
I’m sure if you asked anybody on the Patriots roster they would advocate the bye week because it gives players a chance to heal up on nagging injuries, as well as tuning up plays for the following week. But when it comes to actual in-game action, the Patriots can not replicate that no matter how many plays they run in practice. For Bill Belichick and his coaching staff, the bye definitely helps them during the regular season, posting a 11-3 record after a bye week. It’s clear the extra time that Brady, and Vince Wilfork get helps the Patriots during the regular season but what about the bye in the playoffs?
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In 2001, Tom Brady took over as quarterback after Drew Bledsoe was taken out early in the season thanks to a Mo Lewis hit, one that redefined the Patriots history. But what cam after that was a 11-5 season from the Patriots which earned them a number two seed in the AFC, and eventually a date with the Oakland Raiders in what would later be famously known as the “Tuck Rule Game”. Thanks to a unbelievable field goal by Adam Vinatieri the Patriots were able to beat the Raiders 16-13, and moved them on to face the Pittsburgh Steelers. They would later go on to defeat the Steelers and then of course beating the “Greatest Show On Turf” 20-17 in what would become one of the most memorable games in Patriots history.
Score 1 for the bye week.
In 2003, the Patriots were able to go 14-2 which earned them the number one seed in the conference and eventually would host Steve McNair and the Tennessee Titans. The Patriots would squeeze out a 17-14 victory over McNair and the Titans and earn the team’s first playoff victory at Gillette Stadium. They would move on to face the Indinapolis Colts in the AFC Championship at Gillette, as Peyton Manning and Edgerrin James looked to reach their first career Super Bowls. However Ty Law had other plans as he picked off three of Mannings’ passes which would hinder the Colts offense and give Brady plenty of opportunities to put points on the board. They would go on to defeat the Colts 24-14, and advance to their second Super Bowl in three years. In Super Bowl 38 the Patriots faced off against Jake Delhomme and the Carolina Panthers in what would become a high scoring affair, Brady would throw for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns in route to another Patriots Super Bowl title.
Score 2 for the bye week.
The following season in 2004, the Patriots would go 14-2 once again but this time only earning the number two seed in the conference, nonetheless they still earned a bye and a matchup with the Colts once again. After putting up 49 points in their Wild Card game against the Broncos, Manning and the Colts were only able to put up 3 points as the Patriots defense shut Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne out once again. The Patriots would return to Pittsburgh to face rookie Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers. In one of the coldest playoff games in history, the Patriots offense was red-hot as they scored 41 points and defeating Big Ben and the Steelers 41-27. In Super Bowl 39 the Patriots offense did not miss a beat, as they scored 24 points defeating the Eagles 24-21 and capturing their 3rd Super Bowl in 4 years.
Score 3 for the bye week
In 2007 the Patriots put up record breaking numbers, both as a team and individually. Tom Brady broke the (then) single season touchdown record with 50 thanks in large part to the addition of Randy Moss. We all know how this year ended up, demolishing ever team until they faced the Giants in Super Bowl 42 when Eli Manning and David Tyree pulled off the impossible by upsetting the Patriots and sending New England into a deep, deep depression over the lost chance to be considered THE best team in NFL history. Keep in mind as well the Giants weren’t afforded a bye week in the playoffs, they barely made the dance but once they did Eli and company got on a roll.
Score 1 NOT for the bye
In 2010 the Patriots looked to return to dominance and they sure looked like they had the team to do it, going 14-2 and earning another number one seed in the AFC. They would go on to face Mark Sanchez and the Jets in the Divisional Round at Foxboro, but thanks to five sacks by the Jets defense on Tom Brady they were able to upset the Patriots 28-21.
Score 2 NOT for the bye
The 2011 season for the Patriots was an emotional one, both on and off the field. While the Patriots were dominating the AFC and earning a 13-3 record, good for first in the AFC, owner Bob Kraft was dealing with a huge loss off the field. His wife and long time supporter of the Patriots Myra Kraft had passed away that year, and throughout the season the Patriots honored her wearing a patch with her initials on their jerseys. After bulldozing through Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos in the Divisional Round, the Patriots faced the Baltimore Ravens for a chance to reach yet another Super Bowl. Thanks to a missed kick by Billy Cundiff in the final seconds of the AFC Championship Game, they were able to steal a 23-20 victory and earned a trip to face the Giants in Super Bowl 46. The story would remain the same as Belichick and Brady would be outmatched by Tom Coughlin, Eli Manning, and Mario Manningham.
Score 3 NOT for the bye
In 2012 the Patriots posted another 12-4 season, good for second in the AFC. After once again demolishing JJ Watt and the Texans 41-28, the Patriots moved on to face the Ravens in a rematch of last years AFC Championship Game. This one would end much differently though as Joe Flacco and Anquan Boldin were able to outmatch the Patriots defense, a unit that lost Aqib Talib early on and was unable to recover from it. In Ray Lewis final playoff run, they were able to go on and defeat the 49ers and capture Super Bowl 47.
Score 4 NOT for the bye
Finally last year the Patriots once again earned a first round bye as they posted a 12-4 record earning themselves the number two seed in the conference. Just as they did in previous seasons, they took care of business in the Divisional Round as LeGarrette Blount ran all over the Indianapolis Colts defeating them 43-22. However when it came to facing the Denver Broncos and that potent offense, the Patriots were simply outmatched. Between losing key players such as Rob Gronkowski, and Vince Wilfork, the Patriots were manned against Peyton Manning and the Broncos record breaking offense. They would drop that game 26-16.
Score 5 NOT for the bye
Now before everyone heads to the Tobin Bridge, just hear me out. In 3 of those playoff losses the Patriots were missing pivotal guys that contributed to them earning the bye in the first place. Gronkowski, Wilfork, Talib, Jerod Mayo, Gronkowski (again), Talib (again). When you take away those guys and replace them with their backups and ask them to face some of the best teams such as the Broncos or Ravens, under high pressure situations its not hard to see why they faltered in those games. So even though they are 3-5 (in terms of Super Bowls) when earning the bye, this year seems to be unlike the previous five attempts by the New England Patriots.
Entering this week’s game against the Ravens, all the Patriots key players appear to be at, or near, 100%. If they are able to keep guys like Gronkowski, Darrelle Revis, and Dan Connolly injury free this postseason run, there is no reason why Super Bowl aspirations are out of the question. But since you can never predict injuries and how they will impact a teams performance, we must ask does the bye week give the teams an advantage in terms of healing up players from injury.
After going through that list, the answer seems like an obvious yes since you need your key players healthy this time of year, but in recently we’ve seen teams who had to play on Wild Card Weekend raise the Lombardi Trophy. Take a look at the list:
2014-Seattle Seahawks: Number 1 seed (Bye Week)
2013-Baltimore Ravens: Number 4 seed (Played Wild Card Weekend)
2012- New York Giants: Number 4 seed (Played Wild Card Weekend)
2011-Green Bay Packers: Number 6 seed (Played Wild Card Weekend)
2010- New Orleans Saints: Number 1 seed (Bye Week)
So taking a look back at the past five Super Bowl winners, three of them have played during Wild Card Weekend. But what’s also noteworthy amongst these five teams is the health of their roster entering the postseason, none of these five teams had major injuries entering or during their Super Bowl runs.
So while past results have indicated that the bye may not be as helpful as one would think, it really comes down to who is playing their best and who is able to maintain their health throughout the postseason. So for the Patriots, everything for them is looking better than it has in over a decade. They have a healthy roster, as well as the bye week. While their match up may be a tough one, if they can remain healthy (and that’s a big if) there should be no reason to think this team couldn’t advance past the Ravens and ultimately move on to Super Bowl 49. And that, that would be as cool as the other side of the pillow.