Why the Red Sox Don’t Need Cole Hamels
By Alex Llanso
Throughout the offseason, the Boston Red Sox have been linked to trade rumors surrounding Philadelphia Phillies ace, Cole Hamels. The Red Sox missed out on Jon Lester this summer and many fans have expressed a desire to improve the rotation. The Phillies, however, have been adamant about receiving top end young talent in return for Hamels.
But do the Sox really need Hamels? To answer this question, we need to look at the rotation and see what we can expect from some of its key members.
Clay Buchholz had a pretty bad year in 2014, and is seen as one of the biggest question marks in the Sox rotation this year. He had an 8-11 record in 28 appearances and finished the year with a 5.34 ERA. While Buchholz can’t be expected to repeat his 2013 season, where he had a 1.74 ERA, he should be in for some improvement.
Last season, he had a left on base % of 62.1%, nearly 10% lower than his career average. Expect that number to normalize this season, meaning fewer runs allowed and an overall better Clay Buchholz, which bodes well for the Sox.
Rick Porcello was the big off-season acquisition for the Red Sox. Last season he had a 15-13 record in 32 games, with a 3.43 ERA.
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While Porcello may not be a big strikeout pitcher, he is able to succeed due to an incredible ability to generate outs through groubdballs. Porcello’s Groundball% was actually down last year. His career average is 52.1% and last season it dropped to 49%. If Porcello is able to continue generating a high number of ground balls, look to see his ERA drop even more.
The final guy to look at is Joe Kelly. Kelly was acquired last season when the Sox moved John Lackey to the Cardinals. While Allen Craig was the big name in that deal, I think Joe Kelly has a chance to be the better acquisition for the Sox.
Last season, Kelly started 17 games and had a 6-4 record with a 4.2 ERA. Despite the average at best numbers, Kelly still should be considered as a quality number five starter for the rotation. It also can’t be forgotten that he is only 26 and advanced metrics show that he is developing. The key development from Kelly is what he can do with his secondary pitches. In years past, he has relied on his two-seam fastball heavily, throwing it nearly 70% of the time. Last season he showed strong increases in his curveball percentage as well as his four-seam fastball.
If Kelly can continue to control his fastball’s that at times reach 99 and is able to mix in some more curves and changeups, he could develop into a solid middle of the rotation guy. While he is certainly no Cole Hamels, he is, in my opinion a guy who is underrated at the moment and could have a breakout season.
The Phillies have been adamant that they want a top prospect along the lines of Swihart, Betts, or Bogaerts, which is a cost that I would not be willing to pay.Despite the lack of a traditional ace, the Red Sox rotation should be more than good enough to compete for the AL East and I would urge fans to think twice about rooting for a trade for Hamels.