Patriots’ Quest for a 5th Title Begins After Tumultuous Offseason

With the New England Patriots‘ training camp getting started this Thursday, it seems like an appropriate time to speculate about the reigning champs’ chances of repeating. It would be the NFL’s first back-to-back Super Bowl winner since the Pats themselves did it back in 2004 and 2005.

-= Related: Titletown: Ranking Boston’s Championship Teams Since 2001 =-

Earlier this week, commissioner Roger Goodell announced that Tom Brady‘s 4-game suspension for his role in the DeflateGate scandal is being upheld. Brady will continue to fight the ruling, however, so the amount of time he’ll actually be out is still not set in stone.

Whatever it ends up being, his absence shouldn’t doom the Patriots’ season. Winning Super Bowl 50 will depend on how New England plays at full strength, as they adjust to a number of critical offseason departures. Veteran tackle Vince Wilfork signed with the Houston Texans, Darrelle Revis returned to the New York Jets, and fellow cornerback Brandon Browner joined the New Orleans Saints.

The Patriots used their first round pick to draft All-American Malcom Brown, hoping he can follow in Wilfork’s footsteps. They also brought in free agent cornerback Tarell Brown this week, but let’s be honest, Revis is irreplaceable. He’s been the best in the business since he entered the NFL in 2007. He dominated last season as the Patriots ranked 8th in the league in points allowed. He received his fourth First Team All-Pro selection, and was rewarded handsomely when the Jets offered him $70 million for five years, $39 million of that fully guaranteed. The Patriots could have kept Revis in a New England uniform, but history prevailed and as always, they refused to break the bank. We’ll see this year if they come to regret it.

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They also opted to let the talented, but penalty-prone Browner walk. Owner Robert Kraft did open his checkbook to bring back Devin McCourty. The 27-year-old safety signed a 5-year, $47.5 million deal, obviously less than Revis got, but still a hefty amount for a player not nearly as talented. McCourty started his career as a cornerback before being converted to safety during his third season. He could see time at both positions this year as the Patriots determine the best way to replace the departed duo of Browner and Revis.

Regardless of McCourty’s exact role, it seems clear the defensive backfield has taken a significant step back. The front four are transitioning as well with the departure of Wilfork. Brown has a ton of potential, but he’s still a rookie stepping into a position that’s been vacated by a Patriots great. Linebacker Jerod Mayo‘s return could make a difference, but he’s been limited to six games in each of the past two seasons and needs to stay healthy.

Things have stayed more consistent on the offensive side of the football, although longtime lineman Dan Connolly did retire earlier this month. Running back LeGarrette Blount is back for a full season with the team and the Patriots added a potential weapon in tight end Scott Chandler. If Rob Gronkowski is ready to go after his well-documented summer of mayhem, the offense should thrive once Brady gets on the field.

My gut tells me New England enters this season weaker than they were last year. Revis is a special, special player, capable of eliminating any opponent’s most dangerous receiver. I’d be shocked if teams’ passing numbers against the Pats don’t increase significantly. McCourty will be tested early in the season with games against Dallas and Indianapolis. Even with the rookie Brown stepping in, Wilfork’s absence up front should not be underestimated either.

I have a feeling this team will be leaning heavily on the right arm of Mr. Brady, who will be 38 years old come August. A potentially shortened season might not be the worst thing. New England will need big numbers from him, Gronk, and company if they hope to offset what I anticipate will be higher opponent point totals. Fortunately, Brady has proven he can answer the bell when the Patriots’ offense has been asked to carry the load in past years. He’s definitely not a young buck anymore, but his 15 seasons and 7,168 pass attempts have yet to really show.

I expect New England will be right there at the end, in the mix with two or three teams to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Hoisting the Lombardi Trophy for a 5th time will take some luck with injuries and the continued agelessness of Brady, but as they’ve been for a decade and a half, the Patriots are once again legitimate contenders. After an offseason of relentless DeflateGate coverage and the ongoing suspension saga, I know I’m not alone when I say I can’t wait for the actual games to begin.