New England Patriots: Trade Up in the 2016 NFL Draft?

Will the New England Patriots look to trade up in the 2016 NFL Draft?

Barring an epiphany by the NFL that maybe cold weather just might make a difference in the PSI of a football, the New England Patriots won’t have a first-round pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. That first-round pick, of course, was docked by the league when the NFL determined that the Patriots were in “BIG F’ING TROUBLE” after last year’s AFC Championship bloodbath…er, “game”.

Plenty of teams strike out early in the NFL draft, like, oh, say, the mid-2000s Oakland Raiders, but New England’s luck in the first round has been impressively consistent. And by “consistent”, that means “consistently outstanding”, even though they’re almost always picking at the tail end of the first round.

I mean, look at these first-rounders since Belichick took over:

2001 – Richard Seymour (DT)

2002 – Daniel Graham (TE)

2003: Ty Warren (DT)

2004: Vince Wilfork (DT), Benjamin Watson (TE)

2005: Logan Mankins (OG)

Ha ha ha, it says Logan Mankins is an OG…cause he’s an offensive guard…but he’s also an OG. Get it? Get it??

2006: Laurence Maroney (RB)

2007: Brandon Meriweather (S)

2008: Jerod Mayo (LB)

2009: N/A (the Patriots didn’t have a first round pick this year)

2010: Devin McCourty (DB)

2011: Nate Solder (OT)

2012: Chandler Jones (DE) and Dont’a Hightower (LB)

2013: N/A (this pick got traded to the Vikings in the Cordarelle Patterson deal)

2014: Dominique Easley (DT)

2015: Malcom Brown (DT)

There’s a few borked picks in there, but there’s also a whoooooooole lot of championship hardware and Pro Bowls. Also notable: every first-rounder the Patriots have drafted since 2008 is still with the team today, and the Pats have made a few of them, like Devin McCourty and Jerod Mayo, very, very wealthy.

It begs the question: if the Patriots are that good at scouting early-draft talent, and the 2016 draft seems to be more loaded than a B-Dubs potato skin, especially on defense, will the Pats try to trade up and get a piece of that first-round action?

Fortunately, unlike, say, Bill Belichick’s old team, the Cleveland Browns, who seem like they’re either firing a coach, a GM, or both of them as often as you or I would order a pizza, there’s enough of a track record with Belichick pulling double duty as coach and general manager in New England that we can get a pretty good vibe for whether he’d even consider trading into the first round.

Human football encyclopedia Bill Barnwell pointed out on Grantland (R.I.P.) last year that Bill Belichick deals tend to fall into two different flavors: he either trades a current pick for a better future pick, like when they traded the Saints the 28^th pick in the 2011 draft for New Orleans’ 56^th pick and New Orleans’ 2012 first-rounder, or, as Pats fans are well aware, he’ll deal a pick for multiple lower-round picks, like the trade with the Minnesota Vikings in 2013 that swapped New England’s first-round pick for the Vikings’ second, third, fourth, and seventh-round picks.

And while the Patriots are most famous for trading down, it can be surprising to look at some of the big-name players that they’ve gotten when Belichick decides trading up is worth it. There’s also, of course, a few spectacular faceplants after he traded up, too. Here’s a few of the hits…

-Matthew Slater, WR (2008)

-Chandler Jones, DE (2011)

–Eugene Wilson, S (2003)

–Rob Gronkowski, TE (2010)

…and a few of the misses.

-Daniel Graham, TE (2002)

–Bethel Johnson, WR (2003)

–Chad Jackson, WR (2006)

–Ron Brace, DE (2009)

Calling Daniel Graham a miss may be a bit harsh, but the rest of those guys…yeah.

Last year, I wrote about how the Patriots almost never target wide receivers in the early rounds of the draft, and never in the first round since Belichick got to town. Aside from the wheeling and dealing in the middle and late rounds that happens every year, though, could this be the year the Pats have to trade to get into the first round and get a crack at some of the top-level talent?

Doubtful.

Barnwell also notices in that same Grantland post that Bill Belichick has his own Rules of Fight Club when it comes to moving around in the draft:

“…Where he succeeds more than most is in sticking to a game plan and avoiding making the desperate decisions that other teams do. Belichick doesn’t treat the Patriots like they’re one player away. He doesn’t overreact to a perceived weakness, like New England’s lack of a downfield receiver, by throwing a high draft pick at a talent who doesn’t deserve the recognition. And he doesn’t sacrifice future picks to satisfy present needs.”

In other words, the Patriots do the exact opposite of what teams like the Atlanta Falcons and the Washington It’s-Not-An-Ethnic-Slur-If-You-Say-You-Mean-It-Respectfully-s did when they made deals to trade up and snag Julio Jones and Robert Griffin III, respectively. Those trades are the football equivalent of the kid playing Monopoly who trades all the reds and yellows for Boardwalk and Park Place, and then wonders why they’re not getting any money.

And this is 100% spitballing, but since so are 98% of draft projections anyway, here’s this:

Look at the players the Patriots have drafted in the high rounds during Belichick’s time in New England. What type of players was he targeting?

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Lots of d-linemen, like Vince Wilfork, Richard Seymour, and Malcom Brown. Linebackers like Jerod Mayo and Dont’a Hightower. A few defensive backs, like Devin McCourty and Brandon Meriweather. Almost zero offensive players, with the exceptions of Logan Mankins, Nate Solder, and one of Belichick’s biggest misfires, Laurence Maroney.

Most of those position groups – defensive linemen, linebackers, and defensive backs – are arguably the deepest and most complete parts of the 2015-2016 Patriots.

Pro Football Focus ranks the Patriots corners and safeties as some of the best in the league. The Patriots finished the season ranking second in the league in sacks, with 49 (Denver was first with 52). They finished the year 10^th overall in points allowed per game (19.7), and they’re only in 10^thplace because of a three-way tie of teams that allowed 19.6 points per game (the Jets, Texans, and Cardinals).

In other words, the Patriots defense, far from the chopped liver that most people expected them to be this year after several big-name players like Darrelle Revis, Vince Wilfork, and Akeem Ayers left, is arguably their biggest trump card. Would Belichick really risk valuable draft capital to move up and draft another defensive player to add to a defense that’s already deep and one of the league’s best?

Unless he finds the next Vince Wilfork, it’s a long shot.

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