The Anatomy of a Trade: Identifying Potential Red Sox Trading Partners
By Blake Yagman
The Boston Red Sox season is finally underway, but it’s never too early to start thinking about possible in-season acquisitions
A large swath of Red Sox Nation is already calling for upgrades to the starting rotation, though the grass at Fenway Park has yet to field this years team (and feel the weight of some of it’s players).When trade rumors are abound, it is important to understand the factors that go into making realistic trades.
Would it be absolutely phenomenal to trade Pablo Sandoval for Mike Trout? Yes. Would Red Sox General Manager Dave Dombrowski’s proposal lead to him being blocked from ever calling the Angels’ organization ever again? Probably.
Every organization has holes, the successful teams are able to fill those holes with respect to every other team competing to do the same. Luckily, the Red Sox and Dave Dombrowski are the perfect case study to understand the anatomy of a trade. So… how does wheelin’ dealin’ Dave begin his work?
The first step is to evaluate the roster. The questions that need to be answered, generally are– what holes does our organization have; who do we have that is an attractive candidate to other teams; and what are we hoping to accomplish from a philosophical standpoint?
In the case of the Red Sox, one of the main the organizational needs is Major League-ready starting pitching. Thus, the goal is to improve the current team and rotation enough to be able to compete into the post-season. Acquiring starting pitching is difficult because of the amount of evaluative metrics that go into pitching scouting. Further, some starting pitchers struggle to adjust with different defenses and in more home run-friendly ballparks (…looking at you Fenway).
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Once the team has identified the positional need, they would likely shift to evaluate which of the Red Sox’ assets would appeal to different teams. For example, the Red Sox likely would not offer 3B Pablo Sandoval to a team with an elite third baseman. The trick is to find a desperate sucker who needs an upgrade, and thinks your player could be that upgrade.
After identifying a movable asset, the team next compiles a list of a.) starting pitchers they like as compared to b.) whether or not that team would be interested in the asset the team is looking to dump. For example–
Marcus Stroman (Toronto Blue Jays), Interest? Probably none. Blue Jays have MVP caliber third-baseman, could not financially afford to add Sandoval salary, in our division, and attempting to compete for a World Series so unlikely to sell important pieces.
Sonny Gray (Oakland Athletics), Interest? Possibly some. Dombrowski has worked with Athletics’ GM Billy Beane before, would have to eat some of Sandoval’s salary because of OAK’s financial situation, depends on whether OAK is buying or selling as the trade deadline nears.
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Before choosing any specific target, Red Sox GM Dave Dombrowski must narrow the legitimate possibilities for a trade and consider all of the counters as to why the opposing organization might not favor that deal. As Michael Lewis emphasizes in Moneyball, the day you feel as though you have to acquire a player, is the day that you are about to get ripped off.