Boston Red Sox 2017 Player Previews: Xander Bogaerts

Boston Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts has established himself as one of the best at his position.

At only 24, Bogaerts has won two Silver Sluggers and made his first All-Star team in 2016. He has become a key member of the middle of the Boston Red Sox lineup, but a second half slump last year left a little something to be desired going forward.

Bogaerts had a great year in 2016, no doubt about it. He hit .294 with 21 home runs and a career best .802 OPS. He hit .329 with ten homers, 56 runs batted in, and eleven steals over the first half of the season. But when the second half rolled around, a simple eye test could tell that there was something wrong with his approach.

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Over the final 72 games, he only hit .253, drove in only 33 runs, and stole only two more bases. He was walking less and striking out more (52 times over the last two months) and the Red Sox were very clearly being hurt by this slump.

In wins, Xander Bogaerts was hitting .347 with 41 extra base hits. In losses, he only hit .223. It may seem obvious that batters have a lower performance in losses, but Dustin Pedroia, for example, still hit .297 in those games. He had hit .320 and nearly led the league in average the previous year, so a slump like this was a bit of a shock.

A potential explanation for the drop in performance could be that Bogaerts was trying to get out ahead of the ball and simply losing his timing. In his .320 season, the Boston Red Sox shortstop only hit seven home runs. It is possible that he was actively trying to bring up his power numbers, which lowered his simple ability to get a base hit. Bogaerts will have to find a balance in 2017. Consistency is key and it should not be sacrificed for power.

A major area of improvement for Bogaerts, though, was that he was walking a lot more overall last season. He raised his walk percentage from 4.9% to 8.1%, a 3.2% increase, while his strikeout percentage only jumped by 1.7%.

He also created more runs in 2016 than he did in 2015, partially due to the increase in home runs. wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus) is a metric that measures the value of each possible outcome for a hitter, rather than treating them all as equally valuable, while adjusting it for park factors (hitting in Fenway Park is much different from Petco Park in San Diego) and the league’s current average. He created 113 runs for the Red Sox in 2016, four more than he did in 2015.

While, yes, it is an improvement, the relatively small difference between the two seasons shows how a 26 point drop in batting average is barely worth less than hitting fourteen more home runs.

Without David Ortiz, Bogaerts’ power stroke will be more than welcome in the 2017 season. But with strong bats still around him, the best way for him to contribute is to develop a consistent approach. He does not need to press for home runs, he simply needs to take a pitch he can hit and get himself on base any way he can.

In summary, Xander Bogaerts is already among the best shortstops in baseball, which makes it scary to know that he has not completely finished developing.

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It would not be surprising to see him put it all together this year and maintain an average over .300 while delivering a home run total in the low- to mid-teens. 120 wRC+ is not out of the question.

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