Boston Celtics: What to expect from the 2017 NBA Draft Lottery
By Riley Culler
The NBA Draft is still a month away, but tonight’s lottery drawing is just as if not more important for the Boston Celtics.
With a Bevy of very talented prospects in the 2017 NBA Draft class, the stakes are higher than usual. The Boston Celtics have a chance to add a budding young superstar to a 50+ win team. They could also package their pick to trade for an established superstar.
It’s a great time to be a Celtic’s fan, but I’m sure most people are aware of that. For many teams, the lottery is a chance to add a young superstar to a struggling team. In hopes he can contribute or even lead their team to success.
The Celtic’s situation is a bit different, as most teams will probably watch the lottery drawing, Boston will not. They are preparing to duel the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Related Story: Boston Celtics: Eastern Conference Finals game times and TV information vs. Cavaliers
For fans of most teams picking in the lottery, this is all they have to look forward to. Flip the script and fans of teams who aren’t picking in the lottery couldn’t care less as their team is probably already a playoff caliber team.
As for Boston fans, there isn’t much more you could ask for. A 50+ win team, finishing 1st in the Eastern Conference, and already has an MVP candidate on their team. Boston would have to make a colossus mistake to screw this one up.
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How the NBA Draft Lottery works and who has the best chance to claim the No. 1 pick.
The NBA Draft Lottery has been going on since 1985, every year there are 14 teams who miss the playoffs, all of who receive playoff bids. Those 14 teams are then categorized into W/L record and the team with the worst record has the best odds of getting the No.11 pick. Then the team with the best W/L record will have the lowest chance of any team of getting the No.1 pick.
Out of the 14 teams, only 3 team names will be selected for the #1, #2, and #3 pick. Then with remaining 11 teams, the team with the worst record gets 4th, 2nd worst gets 5th, and so on until the 14th pick.
Below are the five teams with the best chance to Win the NBA Draft Lottery.
Celtics could be 1st team to finish with top record in a conf, then pick 1st overall, since Lakers in 1981-82.
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) May 16, 2017
Lottery: 8:30 ET, ESPN pic.twitter.com/DUM54o9mLo
Boston’s odds tonight and my predictions
Below are the percentage chance that Boston receives that pick. Which you can clearly see Boston has a great shot at #1, but is more than likely going to get #4.
- #1 Pick – 25.0% Chance
- #2 Pick – 21.5% Chance
- #3 Pick – 17.8% Chance
- #4 Pick – 35.7% Chance
- #1-#4 Pick – 100% Chance
So the Celtic’s have the best chance to get the #1 pick, they’re more likely to get the #4 pick. Since 1985 when the lottery began, only 6 teams with the best odds to get the #1 pick have actually gotten the #1 pick. That’s 6 times in 32 years, this is one of the main reasons folks around the NBA do not like the lottery system.
To make matters worse, out of those 6 teams, 2 of them were in 2015 and then last year in 2016. With the rarity of the team with the best odds to get the #1 pick actually getting it, and it happening the last 2 years in a row, makes me a bit nervous. Then I remember this is a 50+ win team, getting the 1,2,3, or 4 pick is a blessing in itself.
How it might play out and why Boston is in a great position
To be honest, I believe Boston will be perfectly content with any top 4 pick. If they do receive the No. 1 pick, they will most likely draft Washington PG Markelle Fultz. Now I know what you’re thinking, we already have so many guards! Yes but this could work, for one, Fultz and Thomas have both said many times they can bring the ball up the court or play off the ball, so there wouldn’t be strife between the two.
Another option would be to move Fultz to SG and Bradley to the bench. Bradley could be a great 6th man and that would allow Boston to trade Smart, Rozier, and Crowder possibly. Now it wouldn’t be the end of the world if Boston gets pick #4.
Next: Eastern Conference Finals game times and TV information vs. Cavaliers
Despite Fultz being the best player in this draft, he doesn’t fit the position Boston needs to most. Selecting at #4 would likely having Boston take either of these 6’8″ 205 lbs phenomenal small forwards — Jayson Tatum or Josh Jackson.