New England Patriots: Assessing the AFC playoff picture

The New England Patriots are no stranger to playoff success, but here’s why this postseason outlook is messier than usual.

With the Kansas City Chiefs historic loss on Monday night, the New England Patriots would have been set up perfectly for the AFC’s top seed. That is, had they actually showed up to play on November 11 in Nashville.

Now, as the Pats come back from their bye week a game out, and as the Chiefs descend into theirs a game up, its time to really break down what is left of this race.

Currently, we have about five teams in the AFC that I would label serious contenders. Barring any catastrophes, the New England Patriots are going to win the East. If the red-hot Houston Texans can take care of business in the South, they should be able to stifle Jacksonville, Tennessee, and even Indianapolis from making a run.

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In the North, it looks like Pittsburgh has what it takes to win the division and earn a home playoff game-winning six in a row.

However, both the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals are looming behind while the Steelers still have to play the Patriots, Chargers, Saints, and Broncos.

Out west, the Los Angeles Chargers are a game and a half behind Kansas City with a game in hand. They have been playing really well, except going forward they still have to travel to Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and rival Denver on the road.

While they’re a talented team and a contender, I think they’re going to be stuck playing as a wild card in January. (Although, if I’m being honest, I’m still holding to my take that the Chiefs will go one and done).

So with that being said, the race is down to Kansas City, New England, Pittsburgh, Houston, and Los Angeles in what I would consider the likely top five.

The one thing working in the Patriots favor if they were to win at Pittsburgh in three weeks is that they would have tiebreakers against all the likely division winners – thus giving them a clear route to at least a first-round bye. If they were to lose at Heinz Field, they would surely need the Steelers to lose one or more of their remaining games.

For New England, being the top seed and at least getting a bye is crucial to moving on. In all eight of Tom Brady’s AFC crowns, the Pats have had a bye in the first round. They have never made the Super Bowl at any seed lower than two.

In fact, since 2011, the Pats have not reached or even won the Super Bowl at any seed other than one. All three years in that time span where they have been the two seed, they have lost the AFC title game. So while getting a bye is significant, getting the one seed is even more important.

To do so, the Pats basically need to win out or rely on the Chiefs to lose. This will be difficult given that New England also still has to play in Miami, a place where they have won just once in the past five seasons.

Beyond that game and the Pittsburgh game, the Pats have a decently favorable schedule that still includes home games late against the Jets and Bills.

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All in all, there’s still a lot left to be determined. So get the eggnog and pie and sit down to watch some pigskin this holiday season.

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