How Boston Red Sox can fix pitching staff for 2020 and beyond
You can never have too much pitching
Near the end of Spring Training in 2006, the Boston Red Sox traded pitcher Bronson Arroyo to the Cincinnati Reds for outfielder Wily Mo Pena.
Arroyo established himself as solid major league pitcher and fan favorite, but with the newly acquired Josh Beckett joining holdovers Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield, Matt Clement and David Wells, there was no room in the rotation for Arroyo. Both GM Theo Epstein and manager Terry Francona believed the Red Sox had ample pitching depth and needed Pena’s right-handed power.
Those 2006 Red Sox ultimately underachieved to an 86-76 record, though Pena more than did his part, posting an .838 OPS as Trot Nixon‘s platoon partner in right field. It was the starting pitching that fell apart. Beckett posted a career worst (to that point) 5.01 ERA. Clement and Wells combined for just 20 mostly awful starts.
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Top prospect Jonathan Papelbon was redeployed in the bullpen after Mike Timlin failed as the team’s closer. So the team cycled through a collection of has-beens and never-weres, including Kyle Snyder, Lenny Dinardo, Jason Johnson, Kason Gabbard, Kevin Jarvis and David Pauley, before ultimately giving a rotation spot to 22-year-old Jon Lester.
Fast-forward to 2019 and clearly those who failed to learn from the past were doomed to repeat it. This year’s Red Sox edition opened with a solid starting five of Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez and Nathan Eovaldi. And like 2006, a key veteran, in this case Porcello, struggled through a career worst season, while others (Sale, Price, Eovaldi) were felled by injuries and ineffectiveness. And again, like 2006, the Red Sox did not have the pitching depth to overcome it, this time turning to journeymen Hector Velazquez, Ryan Weber, Andrew Cashner, Brian Johnson and Josh Smith to eat the innings left on the table by the nominal starting five.
On the other hand, two of baseballs best teams, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros, bucked convention by entering this season with seven or eight pitchers good enough to be among a team’s top five. The Dodgers opened with Ross Stripling and Julio Urias in their bullpen, knowing that Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill and Walker Buehler were unlikely to make through a 162 game schedule intact.
Sure enough, Hill made only ten starts, leaving ample opportunities for not only Stripling and Urias but also top prospects Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin. At no point this season have the Dodgers started a pitcher who probably shouldn’t be facing major league hitters.
Similarly, Houston opened with a sold big three in Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Wade Miley, but with open questions about their fourth and fifth starters. However, the candidates for those starts included solid major pitchers Brad Peacock and Colin McHugh along with highly regarded pitching prospects Josh James, Framber Valdez and Forrest Whitley.
Like the Dodgers, even those eight weren’t enough and the Astros gave starts to Jose Urquidy, Corbin Martin and Roger Armenteros before dipping into their considerable prospect depth to acquire Zack Greinke and Aaron Sanchez at the trade deadline.
Dombrowski needs to take a page out of the Dodgers book and go into 2020 with more depth, both in talent and experience, behind his starting five. Maybe Darwinzon Hernandez can be the Red Sox’ Urias, or Tanner Houck their Josh James. But if not, Alex Cora cannot be left merely with options like Velazquez, Johnson or Steven Wright for those inevitable times when one of the starting five struggles or is injured. Had Dombrowski built some real depth, perhaps by signing a low cost veteran like Gio Gonzalez (for 1 year and $2 million) or Tommy Milone (minor league deal) to work out of the bullpen or at Pawtucket until the need arose, the Boston Red Sox might still be within striking distance of a wild card spot instead of playing out the string.
With Porcello likely departing via free agency and Sale’s outlook clouded by injury, the need for pitching depth next season will take on added urgency. When the music stops after the bigger contracts are handed out to the likes of Ryu, Cole and Zack Wheeler, reasonably priced free agent pitchers like Ervin Santana, Brett Anderson or perhaps even the likes of Hill, Michael Pineda and the aforementioned Gio Gonzalez could all be looking for work. Dombrowski should keep their agents on speed dial and aim to bring a few of them to Boston.