Celtics and the night they blew a 28-point lead: ‘Analytics’ of a collape
It was a Friday night. TD Garden was rocking as Jaylen Brown and the Boston Celtics were in the mist of clobbering the Brooklyn Nets once again. The score was 51-23 in the second quarter, and it looks like a night in which the Green would cruise.
The problem is, they went into cruise control and took their foot off the pedal. The result was a 77-37 run by the Nets that turned that 28-point lead into a 10-point loss that turned those early game cheers into boos filled with shock and bewilderment.
What happened Friday night is a trend Celtics fans have witnessed for a few seasons now. For whatever reason, this team has a tough time putting away teams. Too often big leads turn into close battles by the end of the fourth quarter.
Fortunately, the Celtics end up surviving a lot of those collapses. But maybe that is today’s NBA where if a team gets hot beyond the three-point stripe, leads can evaporate as quickly as they are built.
Ultimately, the Boston Celtics were beat at their own game
That is what happened Friday night as a different look Nets team fought back while the Celtics went into a relaxed swoon they couldn’t snap out of. Addressing the loss following the game, Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla put an analytical spin on collapse that is a bit head-scratching.
"“They beat us in every analytical category possible,” Mazzulla said following the game, via Boston.com. “If we don’t commit to the margins no matter how hard we play, we’re not going to win. They got more three’s up, they got more shots up, they got more free throws, they got more offensive rebounds, and they turned it over less. You can play as hard as you want, you’re not going to win with that.”"
True, but a team as talented as the Boston Celtics have shown how dominant they are when they play hard. When they are playing the right way and engaged, they are a very tough team to beat. When they are hitting their 3-point shots, they are lethal. The concern with Mazzulla’s comment is how he turned the attention to the team not shooting enough 3’s. Jacking up 3’s when they were executing and getting buckets is exactly why the lead dwindled.
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There must be a balance there. The Celtics needed to continue playing their game. They needed the pace; they needed the ball movement and most importantly they needed the defense to be on that same level of intensity that built that 28-point lead. While birthday boy Jayson Tatum did have another off-shooting night, the Celtics were rolling. But, it’s the number of three point shots that had Mazzlula worried about the game, which supports that “live by the 3, die by the 3” mentality that has become most NBA teams.
"“I know you guys all think it’s funny,” Mazzulla said. “But the 3-point attempt rate is the most important stat in the game of basketball because of the pace of play, shot selection, and the ability to go on runs. When you get outshot by 14 threes, the potential points there are crucial because it gives you way more shots and why more opportunities.”"
Again true, but if those shots are being contested, a team can shoot ball they want. The problem Friday night is that the Nets were allowed to take too many open shots. The Boston Celtics on the other hand, when cold and continued to jack up the threes. That combination is what led to a night that should humble Tatum, Brown, and them boys. At least we hope it does.
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The bottom line is that if they want that No. 1 seed in the East, they can’t afford to lose these types of games, especially to a Nets team that were ready and willing to wave the white flag until the C’s took their foot off the pedal and like “analytics” tell them to start launching threes with a 28-point lead.