Predictions: New England Patriots Will Top Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

The much-anticipated NFL championship weekend is finally upon us. In the AFC, the New England Patriots will square off with the Indianapolis Colts for the right to represent the conference in the Super Bowl.

New England’s recent dominance of Indianapolis is well documented. Dating back to November of 2010, the Patriots have knocked off the Colts in each of their last five meetings, including a 43-22 stomping in the playoffs last January.

Colts gunslinger Andrew Luck is 0-4 in his career against Tom Brady. Some feel his time to shine is now following a win over Peyton Manning last week. Reaching the conference championship marks the first time he has done so in his career.

Brady on the other hand will be playing in his fourth straight title game and the ninth of his career. He’ll be extra motivated to win considering New England fell to the Broncos in last year’s title game and to the Ravens the year prior. It’s Super Bowl or bust for the future Hall-of-Famer.

So will Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, Jonas Gray and company have their way as they did back in November when the Colts were blown out at Lucas Oil Stadium? Or will Luck and his mates make history by knocking of another legendary quarterback at Gillette Stadium?

We here at Chowder and Champions took a stab at answering those questions in this week’s round of predictions.

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Matthew Rewinski’s Prediction:

A great mind once said “To be the man, you have to beat the man!”, and that’s exactly what the Indianapolis Colts intend to do this weekend. You think playing New England has been a waking nightmare for Peyton Manning lately? Try getting shellacked 42-20, 43-22, and 59-24 in the only three games that you’ve ever played against the Patriots in your career. That’s the barrel that Andrew Luck is staring down this weekend.

New England is currently a 7-point favorite as the home team, and the Colts’ Luck-era history doesn’t need to be rehashed/rubbed in any more than it already has. The past two games between these two featured LeGarrette Blount and Jonas Gray bulldozing Indy into submission, the latter frequently behind 6-man offensive fronts, but it’d be foolish to expect the same this time around. As our President George Dubya once put it, “Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice…you can’t get fooled again.”

The Colts also have to come up with something, anything, to contain tight end/one-man wrecking crew Rob Gronkowski, lest they be collectively thrown out of the club. An interesting idea by Sports Illustrated’s Andy Benoit involved the Colts deploying a quarters coverage defense, which blends man-to-man and zone concepts with the idea being to create a double-team with a linebacker and a safety on Mr. Gronk. With that said, even if (and it’s a BIG “if”) the Colts can corrall Gronkowski, that’ll leave someone else to feast on open zones. Could this be the return of tight end Tim Wright? Another 10-reception game for Julian Edelman? Brandon LaFell skipping down the sidelines when safeties come up to cover tight ends? The easy cop-out answer is “whatever the matchup dictates”. If someone’s open underneath, take it. If someone’s in man coverage downfield, like LaFell was last weekend for the game-winning grab…let it rip.

On the opposite side of the ball, we have quarterback Andrew Luck, the leading touchdown-slinger this season. Luck’s got one of the sharpest eyes in the business when it comes to spotting blown coverages, which has contributed in a big way to Indy’s stranglehold on the AFC South. If fans at Gillette see T.Y. Hilton or Donte Moncrief waving their hand downfield, odds are it’s bad news. The Colts were also converting 3^rd downs at a 44% rate during the season. Limit Luck and friends to short-yardage throws and checkdowns, and see if Indy’s (admittedly much-improved) patchwork offensive line can hold up.

Final Score: Patriots 35, Colts 27

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Frank O’Laughlin’s Prediction:

I feel the key to success this Sunday, for the Patriots, will be getting off to a fast start. We saw them falter out off the gate against Baltimore and it nearly cost them. Now New England will have more wiggle room this week in matching up with the Colts, but they don’t want to inexplicably give the game away.

Bill Belichick will have his squad ready to rumble come 6:40 p.m. Veterans such as Tom Brady, Darrelle Revis, Vince Wilfork and Brandon Browner will have the team focused and determined. New England understands a fourth Super Bowl is within reach and their going to do whatever it takes to secure a shot at capturing the Lombardi Trophy.

Jonas Gray played an immense role in the Patriots 42-20 win over the Colts back in Week 11. He rushed for 201 yards and 4 TD’s in the game. This time around, the Colts will be ready to counter the run if the Patriots set up for it, especially with the 340-pound Arthur Jones back in the lineup. Now their defense isn’t good enough to eliminate the run completely, therefore the play action pass will come into play. Brady will keep the Colts on their heels, airing the football out at will.

I envision Gronkowski drawing a double team for much of the game. Corner Vontae Davis will likely focus his attention on Julian Edelman. Brandan LaFell and Danny Amendola should find great success in this game. The Patriots have to many aerial threats for the Colts to cover. Their pass rush isn’t good enough to force Brady into quick decisions on a consistent basis. Points will be there for the taking and the Patriots will capitalize.

Andrew Luck will be have to be at his very best if the Colts are to win. I feel he’s one of the top quarterbacks in football. Can he compete with the Patriots in a shootout? Sure he can. He’s just not going to do so on this stage. The stakes are too high and the lights are too bright for Luck, who lacks big game experience. The Patriots will bait him into a mistake or two that will send the Colts spiraling out of control. He’ll battle, without a doubt, but come the final gun it will be Luck looking back on this game as a learning experience.

Final Score: Patriots 34, Colts 21

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