New England Patriots: Fourth Down Analytics

By Matthew Rewinski | Jan 26, 2016

Jan 24, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick talks on a telephone in the first half against the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship football game at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /

Two fourth-and-short situations, two failures. As such, the New England Patriots are packing their bags and going home instead of to Super Bowl 50.

Maybe it’s because of the fourth-and-two disaster of 2009, which is loathed enough in New England Patriots fan circles that there’s a podcast named after it. Every time Belichick digs into his bag of “WTF?” plays, and it doesn’t work, 98% of people are screaming “SHOULD’VE PLAYED IT BY THE BOOK, BILL!!!”

Those two plays very well could’ve decided the game. One was with about six minutes left when the New England Patriots were down by eight and left with fourth down and one yard to go. Instead of kicking a field goal, Brady’s lob to Julian Edelman wasn’t enough to pick up the first down.

Edelman, who’s made a career out of breaking ankles and watching guys fly by him like they hit the hit stick button in Madden, couldn’t make cornerback Chris Harris miss. Turnover on downs.

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The second one was another fourth down in the red zone, where, again, the New England Patriots could have kicked a field goal with about three minutes left and hoped to get the ball back in time to score again.

Instead, Brady chucked it to Rob Gronkowski in the end zone, who was having a fantastic game despite the Patriots offensive line being about as useful as a glass door in The Walking Dead. Turnover, again.

Freakin’ A.

For the New England Patriots, both of these plays were a pretty clear example of statistics saying they should do something, and the actual results just didn’t pan out.

There are a zillion studies on the probability of converting on fourth down, and the odds may surprise you, especially in the red zone (inside the 20-yard line).

According to Advanced Football Analytics, the chances of converting on fourth-and-one between the 10 and 20-yard lines are 75%. If we’re talking fourth-and-one inside the 10-yard line, the probability of successfully converting goes down to about 68%, which are still odds just about any gambler would take in a vacuum. Fourth and six, like the situation the New England Patriots faced in the fourth quarter with 2:25 left, still has about a 45% chance of success.

That chart is the bottom line, the take-away. It says that coaches should normally be far more aggressive on 4^th down.

To put it in another sense, according to probability alone, if the Patriots went for it on three fourth-down-and-one situations in the red zone, they should convert two out of the three. At least. And in the case of the fourth-and-six, they should still expect whatever they run to work about half of the time.

Advanced Football Analytic’s conclusion is, after throwing out a bunch of stuff about expected points, kicking vs. punting, etc., is that “That chart is the bottom line, the take-away. It says that coaches should normally be far more aggressive on 4^th down”.

Ok, now, with all that math stuff out of the way, everybody saw what happened. Two red-zone trips that ended with zero points to show for it, and a brain-melting conclusion where Tom Brady found Rob Gronkowski with ten seconds on the clock to bring the New England Patriots within two.

…and then a two-point conversion throw to Julian Edelman, the man Brady turned to when the Patriots needed a score the most in the Super Bowl, had the pass deflected and picked off.

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Oh, and Gronk was about as open as you’ll ever see him in the end zone, and didn’t get the rock thrown to him.

Belichick, when asked about the missed opportunities today, regrets nothing, per the Boston Herald:

“It’s time, the number of possessions you have left, and what you need to do. And the number of opportunities we had to do that,” said Belichick.

“There weren’t very many. At that time, there was no hesitation in doing that.”

Later on:

“There were like two-and-a-half minutes to go in the game, down by eight, and fourth-and-5 or whatever it was. We thought the best thing to do was go for it.”

Next: New England Patriots: Running Game Vanished

Bottom line: at the end of the day, both failures were exactly what happens when the New England Patriots don’t deliver on the mantra they’ve made famous for almost 20 years now and defined the organization:

“Do your job”.

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