Tom Brady: Quarterback’s Future in Jimmy Garoppolo’s Hands

Jimmy Garoppolo’s success could lead to the end of the Tom Brady era in New England.

In 2001, franchise quarterback Drew Bledsoe went down with an injury in the second game of the New England Patriots season after shearing a blood vessel when hit by New York Jets linebacker Mo Lewis. A 24-year-old Tom Brady would answer the call. Bledsoe would be kicked out of town at season’s end and shipped to Buffalo while Brady basked in the glory of a Super Bowl MVP and newly-found stardom.

Fast-forward to 2016. Brady is sitting the first four games while 24-year-old backup Jimmy Garoppolo takes the reigns of New England’s offense in the meantime.

Brady is not Bledsoe. Brady has four Super Bowl rings, three Super Bowl MVP Awards, two NFL MVP Awards, eleven Pro Bowl selections, a career 96.4 passer rating, and 428 touchdown passes. Tom Brady is the most iconic player in Patriots history. Heck, he belongs with Larry Bird, Ted Williams, and Bobby Orr on the Mount Rushmore of Boston athletes. The face of the New England Patriots has so much more going for him than Bledsoe did in 2001, right?

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Well, Brady is 39 and the sixth oldest player in the league with the five players in front of him being kickers, punters, and Matt Hasselbeck. In fact, only 58 NFL players in history have retired in their 40’s. Quarterbacks especially have seen a significant drop off in performance around age 40. In fact, very few quarterbacks who have played into their late 30’s have sustained starting positions, much less play at the Hall of Fame standards that Brady has throughout his career.

Sometimes, this sudden transformation can occur quickly as in the cases of Peyton Manning and Brett Favre.

In 2013, Manning set NFL records, but by the end of last year, his arm was ready to fall off. When Brett Favre was 40, he led the Vikings to a 12-4 record and had arguably the best year of his career. One year later, he threw 19 interceptions in 13 games and was plagued with injuries before retiring at the end of the year.

Advantage Bledsoe.

Bledsoe was just 29 and a Pro Bowl quarterback when Brady took his job. More importantly, New England had just signed Bledsoe to a record setting 10-year, 103 million dollar contract before the season. He was regarded as the quarterback of both the present and the future at that time. Right now, Brady’s current deal is worth approximately 40 million over the next four years when considering the current climate of player contracts in the NFL.

Advantage Bledsoe.

Finally, Belichick’s status as a coach and general manager has changed dramatically since 2001. Heading into his second season as Patriots head coach, Belichick’s career record as a head coach was a sub-par 41-55 in six seasons with only one playoff appearance.

Although his mentor was Bill Parcells, he did not have an incredible coaching history and articles were written in the Boston media about Belichick sitting on the hot seat. Belichick staked his entire career by betting on a 24-year-old skinny and underweight quarterback. Bold move.

“My job is to make the decisions for the football team, and that is what I am going to do. I am going to make the best decisions I can for the football team. This is what Mr. Kraft is paying me to do and that’s what I am going to do,” Belichick said in 2001 after naming Brady the starter midseason. “I am going to make the decisions that I feel are best for the football team, T-E-A-M, as in team.”

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That’s back when Belichick did not have four Super Bowl titles. He doesn’t care about what is popular. At the time, Drew Bledsoe was an untouchable player and one of the best quarterbacks in the league who had turned the franchise around with Bill Parcells, Belichick’s own mentor.

Unlike then, Belichick now has leverage and legitimate concerns for the quarterback position in the future. Based on the words of Brady’s father, it appears that Brady is aware of his expendability and understands nobody is untouchable in New England.

“It will end badly (in New England),” Brady Sr. said in 2015. “It does end badly. And I know that because I know what Tommy wants to do. He wants to play ‘til he’s 70….It’s a cold business and for as much as you want it to be familial, it isn’t.”

Advantage Bledsoe.

Even though Belichick has already stated that Brady will return as the starter in week 5 against Cleveland, these first four games will be instrumental with Garoppolo in determining the future of Brady with the Patriots.

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Right now, Garoppolo is signed through 2017 on his rookie contract, but will likely demand a significant pay raise with a 4-0 start this year. If Garoppolo performs well this year, regardless of how Brady plays, Belichick will be faced with a major decision next offseason: keep him or trade him?

Don’t ask me which quarterback.