Boston Red Sox ALDS: Why Xander Bogaerts is the ‘X’ factor

It’s time for Xander Bogaerts to finally step up in the first playoff meeting between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees since 2004.

It seems like it was ages ago when Xander Bogaerts surprised everyone and played competitive baseball in the playoffs back in 2013. The then 20-year-old shortstop was the youngest player in Boston Red Sox history to start in a postseason game.

Bogaerts conducted himself throughout those playoffs as if he were a veteran in his ninth season (especially when he batted .500 in the American League Championship Series), and rarely showed signs of inexperience. The only thing he did show was patience at the plate, and stellar quickness on defense.

Unfortunately, that same dynamic shortstop has been absent throughout the past couple of Octobers, particularly in the ALDS. Since 2013, the Red Sox has batted .250 and .059 respectively in the 2016 and 2017 ALDS (where he’s particularly hitting a paltry .138 in the first round), according to Baseball-Reference. The unusual aspect of this is the fact that he’s still batting a career .284.

More from Chowder and Champions

• 3 Midseason Chaim Bloom Decisions That Have Killed the 2023 Red Sox
• 10 Patriots Who Will Be Cut by Tuesday’s Roster Deadline
• MLB Screws Red Sox Fans With Broadcast for Mookie Betts Return
• 3 Most Underpaid Celtics Heading Into the 2023 Season
• Red Sox Continue Rollercoaster Season With Massive Win

So what’s the problem?

Anyone’s first guess would probably link Bogaert’s struggles with young age, or nerves, but neither should apply considering his stellar play in 2013. Therefore, the problem could be due to the heightened expectations he’s experienced since re-entering the postseason against the Cleveland Indians back in 2016.

My other theory is fatigue. With the exception of the 2015 regular season, Xander Bogaerts has a tendency of starting off years strong, and then declining by August through October. According to FanGraphs, Bogaerts started 2016 with a .395 batting average in May, only to see that drop all the way to a .219 in the month of August. Same goes for 2017, where he went from a .351 at the beginning of the year to a .227 in August.

Then again though who knows, because his second half batting average in 2014 and 2015 were better than his first half. However, that could be because the Boston Red Sox were completely out of the playoffs already, thus leading to low stakes competition.

Thankfully, 2018 has been different for the young shortstop. While he’s till just an okay defender, he’s stayed pretty consistent at the plate (batting .284 in the first half and .296 in the second), and actually had a strong finish to the regular season. He’s obtained 23 RBIs while batting .312 over the past month, according to MLB.com. He does strike out a lot though, almost doing it a quarter of that time in the same span.

Regardless, it’s refreshing to see someone who’s struggled so mightily in the final few months of the season finally breakthrough and look like the All-Star everyone expected to see.

Unfortunately for Xander, he has to face a New York Yankees team in the ALDS; a squad he’s struggled against, only posting a .224 average against in 2018. The only guy he’s really had any success with this season is Masahiro Tanaka, where Bogaerts has gone 4-6 during the regular season when facing the New York starter.

That could be good news, considering Aaron Boone may look to start the Japanese native in Game 1 since Luis Severino already took the mound in the wild card game. Maybe a morale boost for Bogaerts is what could get him out of this playoff slump.

Either way, the shortstop has not looked good against the Pinstripes’ bullpen, particularly Dellin Betances and Aroldis Chapman. But then again who has. It will be interesting to see what adjustments he’s made since he’s last seen them.

Trust me, Xander isn’t the only one who needs to step up during Game 1 at Fenway. Mookie Betts hasn’t looked particularly dominant in his two playoff appearances either.

Nonetheless, Xander Bogaerts has a fantastic lineup surrounding him, so not all the pressure will be on him. If Mookie were to win MVP and not produce, it will be a waste of a great season. Bogaert’s doesn’t have that monkey on his back.

Game 1 will tell us a lot about Bogaerts and company, specifically with Alex Cora as the manager this time around. Chris Sale is expected to take the mound at home, and we’ll see how his recent injuries have affected him. Hopefully, all of our worries will subside when fans see the beloved 108-win Boston Red Sox team run out onto the field at 7:30 on Friday night.

Maybe Xander Bogaerts will finally remember what made him so admired back when he was that young 20-year-old looking for a chance to play in the World Series. Only time will tell.