Boston Red Sox rumors: It’s not worth signing Xander Bogaerts to an extension

Xander Bogaerts will be a free agent at the end of the 2019 season. The Boston Red Sox should look to spend their money elsewhere.

Xander Bogaerts has been a superb shortstop for the Boston Red Sox throughout his career, but the Red Sox should not overpay for the shortstop.

Bogaerts will be a free agent after this season after agreeing to a $12 million contract for 2019, avoiding arbitration. The 26-year-old is represented by super agent Scott Boras, which is not good for the Red Sox.

The Aruba native will not be the only player on the Red Sox roster who will be a free agent after the 2019 season. Chris Sale, Rick Porcello, Mitch Moreland, Eduardo Nunez, Steve Pearce, and Brock Holt are all in the final year of their contracts, while Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. will be a free agent after the 2020 season.

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J.D. Martinez can choose to opt-out after every year of his contract. He would make $23.75 million after the 2019 season and $19.35 million after 2020, 2021, and 2022 if he chooses not to opt-out each year.

The Boston Red Sox clearly have a lot of players they will be needing to re-sign soon and will not be able to bring all of them back. They will have to pick and choose which players they want to keep and which players they would be fine without.

What will Bogaerts’ next contract look like?

Bogaerts is coming off a career year. The shortstop hit .288 with 23 home runs and 103 RBIs in 2018.

His 45 doubles, 23 home runs, 103 RBIs, .360 on-base percentage, .522 slugging percentage, and 137 OPS+ were the best of his career. His 10 fielding errors were also the best of his career after committing 17 errors in 2017.

However, Bogaerts has consistently struggled in the playoffs throughout his career. In 2018 he hit just .224 in the playoffs with one home run and .136 in the World Series. In 2017, he hit a horrendous .059 in the playoffs. Over his career, Bogaerts is hitting just .219 in the playoffs with 2 home runs in 33 games.

NBC Boston reported Saturday that the two sides discussed an extension, but the sides never came close to a deal. Even without an extension, Bogaerts is already the sixth highest-paid shortstop in baseball at $12 million.

Elvis Andrus is currently the highest-paid shortstop at $15 million. Bogaerts will almost certainly top that.

Bogaerts is still just 26 years old, so he will likely get at least six years in an extension. Given how difficult it is to find shortstops in today’s league, Bogaerts will likely get around $20 million per year.

If I had to guess on Bogaerts’ contract, I would say 7 years, $147 million, good for $21 million per year. Having a power-hitting shortstop is very rare and will get Bogaerts more money.

Red Sox shouldn’t bite

Bogaerts has been very vital to the Red Sox success. He has been great in the regular season and has been an important part in the middle of the Red Sox lineup. His defense has also gotten better since his rookie season.

However, the Red Sox have a lot of players they need to extend, and Bogaerts would require a lot of money. Extending Chris Sale is much more important than extending Bogaerts. Mookie Betts could become the richest man in baseball and the Red Sox are trying to extend him before his contract runs out as well.

Also, Bogaerts hasn’t performed well when it has mattered most. His terrible performance in the playoffs should be eye-opening and is not worth the money that he will likely ask for.

The Red Sox need to focus on keeping a balanced roster and letting go of the guys they could still be successful without, and Bogaerts is one of them. The Red Sox went 19-7 when Bogaerts did not play in 2018.

Bogaerts has been great for the Red Sox, but 2019 should be his last season in Boston.