Boston Red Sox: No excuse not to sign Mookie Betts

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Boston Red Sox Mookie Betts (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images) /

Mookie Betts vs. The World

Mookie Betts is not Mike Trout. But that’s only because no one is. Trout is in a class by himself, so the fact that he’s also the highest paid player in baseball, at just over $35 million a year, makes perfect sense.

That said, if Trout sets the market, then Betts deserves to be a close second. Over the last five seasons (since Betts made his big league debut in 2015), Trout has racked up a major league leading 44.2 in fWAR. Betts trails comfortably behind in second place with 35.3 fWAR, just about a nine win difference.

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But the man in third place? That’s the Cubs’ Kris Bryant with 27.9 fWAR, followed closely by Christian Yelich (27.7), Josh Donaldson (27.5), Francisco Lindor (27.1) and Jose Altuve (27.0).

In other words, the gap between Trout and Betts and Betts and the rest of the best baseball players on the planet is huge.

When Betts turned down the Red Sox offer of a contract extension worth 8 years and $200 million before the 2018 season, he was coming off a down year and betting that his future performance would improve. Since then, Betts has done nothing less than produce at elite levels, earning an MVP and a World Series ring with 10.4 fWAR in 2018. By comparison, his 6.5 fWAR this season may seem disappointing, but it’s a mark bested by only seven other players and equal to Xander Bogaerts in what has been rightfully called his own breakout year.

So if Betts were seeking an average annual salary between Trout and Nolan Arenado‘s $32.5 million, who could blame him? Arenado, the current second highest paid position player, is eighth overall in fWAR since 2015 at 26.7.

As for term, Arenado and Manny Machado are both signed through their age 35 seasons. Paul Goldschmidt‘s contract lasts through his age 36 season, while Trout and Bryce Harper are signed through their 38th birthdays.

Betts will turn 27 just after the end of the regular season. He has one season of arbitration left before he’s eligible for free agency, when he’ll be 28 years old.

So if he signs through his 35th birthday at an average of, say, $34 million annually, Betts’ next contract would be 8 years and $272 million. At 10 years and $340 million, Betts would be locked up until just before he turns 38.

In a vacuum, those are eminently reasonable numbers for the 2nd best baseball player in the world. But, of course, contracts aren’t signed in a vacuum and the Red Sox have to pay a full roster of players, with a luxury tax to consider as well.

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